How to Bet Penn State at Ohio State – October 28, 2017

This edition of Formulator Focus is for the biggest match-up of week 9 of the 2017 college football season as the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Penn State Nittany Lions.

This is the marquee game of week 9 in college football.  The winner here not only becomes the favorite to win the Big Ten, they become a favorite to make the College Football Playoff.  The game starts at 3:30 ET and can be seen Saturday on FOX.

Ohio State at Penn State Preview

After last season, each team has a reason for revenge.  Ohio State wants revenge for losing at Penn State last year.  Penn State wants revenge because despite winning the Big Ten Title, the Buckeyes got a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The Buckeyes come in to to the game 6-1 and ranked #2 in our power rankings this week.  The Nittany Lions are undefeated at 7-0 and ranked #3 in our power rankings.

The Vegas line is Ohio State -6.5 with a total of 57.5.

Now let’s look at some numbers for this match-up.

Ohio State Offense vs. Penn State Defense

Ohio State Offense VS Penn State Defense
Points For 47.3 Points Against
Passing Yards For 325.1 Pass Yards Against
Rush Yards 252.1 Rush Yards Ag
Third Down Conversion % 49.44% Third Down Conversion % Allowed
Red Zone Coversion % 85.71% Red Zone Conversion % Allowed

Penn State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

Penn State Offense VS Ohio State Defense
Points For 40 Points Against
Passing Yards For 289.9 Pass Yards Against
Rush Yards 173.4 Rush Yards Ag
Third Down Conversion % 39.33% Third Down Conversion % Allowed
Red Zone Coversion % 84.38% Red Zone Conversion % Allowed

Game Changers – Ohio State vs. Penn State

Ohio State Penn State
Turnover Margin Per Game 1 1.7
Penalties Per Game 74.4 34.6
Opp Penalties Per Game 51.6 48.9
Final Analysis

The Formula has accurately predicted the straight up winner of 6 of 7 games (missed on Oklahoma vs. Ohio State) for the Buckeyes and is 7-0 in games involving the Nittany Lions.

The Formula has missed on the total of every Ohio State game this year and only hit 3 of 7 on Penn State games.  We predict a Buckeyes win 34-32. Last season, these two combined for 45, 11 under the total.

Free Pick for Ohio State at Penn State – Take the UNDER 56.5

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How to Bet USC at Arizona State – October 28, 2017

This edition of Formulator Focus is for the week 9 Pac-12 college football battle between the Arizona State Sun Devils and USC Trojans.

The winner here becomes the favorite to represent the Pac-12 South in the conference championship game.  The game kicks off at 10:45 ET Saturday night and can be seen on ESPN.

USC at Arizona State Preview

USC comes in off of a 49-14 loss in primetime at Notre Dame last Saturday.  The Trojans are 6-2 overall but have lost their last two road games.  They are ranked 27th in our power rankings this week.

Arizona State enters the game having won two straight including a 13-7 upset of Washington and 30-10 win at Utah last week.  The Sun Devils are 4-3 on the season and ranked 39th in our power rankings this week.

The Vegas line has USC -3 with a total of 57.5 points.

Now let’s look at the numbers for this match-up.

USC Offense vs. Arizona State Defense

USC Offense VS Arizona State Defense
Points For 31.9 Points Against 28.4
Passing Yards For 291.9 Pass Yards Against 251.7
Rush Yards 167.5 Rush Yards Ag 164.4
Third Down Conversion % 44.86% Third Down Conversion % Allowed 40%
Red Zone Coversion % 78.57% Red Zone Conversion % Allowed 91.30%

USC Offense vs. Arizona State Defense

Arizona State Offense VS USC Defense
Points For 29.4 Points Against 26.9
Passing Yards For 267.4 Pass Yards Against 223.9
Rush Yards 127.4 Rush Yards Ag 175.5
Third Down Conversion % 41.74% Third Down Conversion % Allowed 36.89%
Red Zone Coversion % 100% Red Zone Conversion % Allowed 68.97%

Game Changers – USC vs. Arizona State

USC Arizona State
Turnover Margin Per Game -0.4 0.4
Penalties Per Game 60.9 31
Opp Penalties Per Game 50.6 66.1
Final Analysis

The Formula has been great against the spread in games involving these two teams.  In 15 combined games in 2017, we have accurately predicted the ATS winner in 13 (87%) of those games.  We’ve predicted the correct winner of each USC game this season.  We have predicted USC to win by 5 in this game.  Let’s ride with the Trojans this week.

Free Pick for USC at Arizona State – USC -3 

 

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How to Bet Oklahoma State at West Virginia – October 28, 2017

This edition of Formulator Focus is for the week 9  Big 12 college football showdown between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and West Virginia Mountaineers.  We breakdown this game and give you a free pick.

This is a loser leaves town game for the Big 12 Championship game.  The winner hangs in contention for a spot in the title game.  Kickoff is Noon ET on Saturday and is broadcast on ABC.

Oklahoma State at West Virginia Preview

Oklahoma State enters this game 6-1 having won three straight after losing to TCU.  They won last Saturday by 3 in OT at Texas.

West Virginia is 5-2 this season having won 2 straight including a 38-36 win on Saturday at Baylor.

The Vegas line on this game is Oklahoma State -7.5 with a total of 74.5.

Now let’s look at the numbers for this match-up.

Oklahoma State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense

Oklahoma State Offense VS West Virginia Defense
Points For 43.7 Points Against 31.2
Passing Yards For 392.7 Pass Yards Against 281.5
Rush Yards 197.4 Rush Yards Ag 205
Third Down Conversion % 49.45% Third Down Conversion % Allowed 34.04%
Red Zone Coversion % 81.58% Red Zone Conversion % Allowed 79.17%

West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

West Virginia Offense VS Oklahoma State Defense
Points For 40.7 Points Against 22.3
Passing Yards For 369 Pass Yards Against 225.3
Rush Yards 171.5 Rush Yards Ag 134.4
Third Down Conversion % 37.50% Third Down Conversion % Allowed 41.03%
Red Zone Coversion % 88% Red Zone Conversion % Allowed 80.77%

Game Changers – Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia 

Oklahoma State West Virginia
Turnover Margin Per Game 0 0.2
Penalties Per Game 45.9 71.7
Opp Penalties Per Game 48 68.3

Final Analysis – This is a big game for both teams and they could be tense.  In Big 12 play, West Virginia has averaged 77.5 points per game while Oklahoma State has averaged 62.  74.5 is a large number for this total.  Count on the defenses to make a few stops in this game.

SportsFormulator has been correct on the Totals 5 of 7 (71%) times for Oklahoma State games but only 2 of 6 (33%) on West Virginia games.  We’ve been 4-0 on the Total in Oklahoma State’s road games.

Free Pick for Oklahoma State at West Virginia – Take the Under 74.5 

 

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The NFL Needs to Kill Thursday Night Football

by Matt Fischer

Roger Goodell likes to give out punishments. Well Commish, you need to give Thursday Night Football the death penalty.

TNF has horrible games that nobody cares about unless you’re betting on the game or a fan of one of the two unfortunate teams that has to turn around and play four days after your last game.

I’m going to watch my lone Thursday Night Football game of the season because my favorite team, the Kansas City Chiefs, will beat the Oakland Raiders. I haven’t watched any of the other Thursday games this season nor will I the remainder of the season. If I’m watching football during the week, it’s college football.

Leave Thursday night to the kickoff game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host a game and then be done with it…outside of Thanksgiving.

More Monday, Less Thursday

I know the money hungry NFL won’t want to lose anything but think of how much you will gain with my solution…a Monday Night Football doubleheader for 16 weeks!

That’s right, eliminate the Thursday game and double up on Monday night. You’ll be more inclusive NFL…think about it. Move kickoff up so viewers on the East Coast don’t have to wait until midnight for the outcome. West Coast fans don’t have to miss the start of a Monday night game.

With players trying to recover from injuries, they need extra time to perform. Thursday Night Football prevents that by often making players perform twice in five days. Give them extra time so you can improve your product.

NFL you can strengthen your brand by continuing to dominate Sunday’s and taking over Monday night across the country. Imagine having Monday nights like this next season:

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders

You can rotate nights where you have divisional match-ups with AFC vs. NFC match-ups. Viewership will go way up. Give people the games they want to see and eliminate the horrible football that’s become the norm on Thursday nights.

 

Formulator Football Friday – September 8, 2017

by Matt Fischer

What a performance by the Kansas City Chiefs last night to open the 2017 NFL season!  They took it to the Patriots on the road winning 42-27.  QB Alex Smith made plays down the field and RB Kareem Hunt set a NFL record in his debut.

I signed up for the Westgate SuperContest yesterday.  You can follow my entry by checking for SportsFormulator on the leaderboard.  It’s my first entry in the contest.  This will be the biggest contest they’ve ever had as over 2400 entries are expected.

For the contest, I had three strong picks right away and then debated another three teams for my final two choices.

College Football Week 2

Great weekend last week as premium ATS picks went 3-0-1 in College Football!  We have 4 premium picks for week 2 college football.  If our pick packages or pick of the week don’t make you a profit, we refund your money.  No string attached.  Win or refund.  Get our picks in the Pick Shop so you can win this weekend.

This weekend in College Football we have high profile match-ups like Oklahoma at Ohio State, Auburn at Clemson, Stanford at USC and Georgia at Notre Dame.  All will impact the playoff race as only one of those four is a conference game.  These are the type of games the committee will look at when seeding the playoff teams.  Access our data driven week 2 college football predictions.

NFL Week 1

We have 4 premium picks for NFL week 1, three sides and one total.  If our pick packages or pick of the week don’t make you a profit, we refund your money.  No string attached.  Win or refund.  Get our picks in the Pick Shop so you can win this weekend.

Raiders at Titans is a game that’ll be interesting on Sunday.  Both are playoff contenders and the winner.

Many consider the Jets to be “tanking” this season.  How will they respond on Sunday in Buffalo?  Their offense doesn’t inspire confidence and getting rid of Sheldon Richardson on defense wouldn’t appear to help things either.

I think there will be some upsets in NFL week 1.  The 49ers are a top candidate.  The Formula has it a 1 point Carolina win but Kyle Shanahan’s familiarity with the Panthers from being OC in Atlanta could help push his team to a 1-0 start.

Get all of our NFL week 1 predictions, survivor pool pick and more!

Today’s #FreePickFriday is for Sunday’s NFL action.  Take the OVER 50.5 for Raiders at Titans.

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The Solution to Tanking in the NBA

by Matt Fischer

We’re one month away from the NBA Draft Lottery.

Tanking has been a problem in the NBA for years now.  Even before the Sixers began “The Process”, teams were losing to get more ping pong balls in the annual draft lottery.

For as much talk as there is about the integrity of the game, teams not competing to win all 82 games is a major problem for the NBA.

Why do NBA Teams Tank?

After the Orlando Magic won back-to-back draft lotteries after having the least chance of the lottery teams in 1993, the NBA made an adjustment to the lottery to make the chances much greater for the teams with the worst records to win the lottery.

This set the stage for modern day NBA tanking.  Now teams that knew they were no longer in playoff contention had no reason to try to win, it only hurt their chances to get better via a top draft pick.

A Race to the Bottom

Since the change in 1994 to the NBA Draft Lottery, the team that finishes with the worst record gets a 25% chance of landing the top pick…second worst has a 17.8%…third worst 17.7%…fourth worst a 11.9% chance before it drops to single digits for the remaining.

If you’ve got the fourth worst record in the league with two weeks left in the season, would you try to win and build momentum for the offseason or give it your least and hope you can drastically improve your chances of moving up in the draft?

The Solution to Tanking

The solution is as simple as it could be…go back to the old draft lottery.  Make it more random.  If a team wins four out of it’s last five games, it will only hurt it’s lottery chances a couple of percentage points.

Revert to the system that worked.  It might have created an abnormality in Orlando winning with just a 1% chance but that’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes NBA owners.

Go to a NBA Draft Lottery that would look like this based on the final 2016-17 NBA standings.  There would be 105 ping pong balls.

Team Ping Pong Balls Chance of Winning
Nets 14 13.3%
Suns 13 12.4%
Lakers 12 11.4%
76ers 11 10.5%
Magic 10 9.5%
Knicks 9 8.6%
Timberwolves 8 7.6%
Kings 7 6.7%
Mavericks 6 5.7%
Pelicans 5 4.8%
Hornets 4 3.8%
Pistons 3 2.9%
Nuggets 2 1.9%
Heat 1 1.0%

The better chance you give all non-playoff teams of winning the lottery, the more exciting the lottery and the end of the regular season becomes.  Those teams who played out the season trying to win all 82 games can think they have a shot no matter how long it might be and replicate the magic of Orlando in 1993.

Adam Silver is a forward thinking commissioner but it’s time for him to look backward and put an end to tanking in the NBA by going back to the old draft lottery system.

Get SportsFormulator’s data driven NBA Predictions here.

Formulator Face-off – NBA March 15, 2017

We welcome Kennedy Summers to Formulator Face-off! She has picked 5 NBA games.  If she gets 5 of 5 correct, picks are FREE in the Pick Shop!

About Kennedy Summers:

Insta: @misskennedys
Twitter: @misskennedys Facebook: @misskennedysummers
Snap: @misskennedys

Favorite sports team: Utah Jazz

Kennedy Summers’ NBA Picks:

Hornets at Pacers – Hornets
Jazz at Pistons – Jazz
Grizzlies at Bulls – Bulls
Kings at Suns – Suns
Bucks at Clippers – Bucks

Access SportsFormulator’s NBA predictions and see how Kennedy compares.

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Formulator Face-off – NBA February 13, 2017

We welcome Angie Vu Ha to Formulator Face-off! She has picked 5 NBA games.  If she gets 5 of 5 correct, picks are FREE in the Pick Shop!

About Angie Vu Ha (DJ Angie Vu Ha):

Favorite sports team: New York Rangers

Angie Vu Ha’s NBA Picks:

Sixers at Hornets – Hornets
Celtics at Mavs – Celtics
Clippers at Jazz – Clippers
Pelicans at Suns – Suns
Hawks at Blazers – Hawks

Access SportsFormulator’s NBA predictions and see how Angie compares.

Check out Angie’s feature with SportsFormulator!

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Formulator Face-off – NBA February 10, 2017

We welcome Katelynn Ansari to Formulator Face-off! She has picked 5 NBA games. If she gets 3 of 5 correct, you save 50% on picks the next day.  If she gets 5 of 5 correct, picks are FREE in the Pick Shop!

About Katelynn Ansari:

Website: www.KatelynnAnsari.com
Social Media: IG @KatelynnAnsari Snapchat: SorryImAnsari

Favorite sports team: Denver Broncos, Anaheim Ducks, and Angels. I’m a local Orange County girl so I gotta love my home teams!!

Katelynn Ansari NBA Picks:

Lakers at Bucks – Bucks
Warriors at Grizzlies – Warriors
Hawks at Kings – Hawks
Nuggets at Knicks – Nuggets
Pacers at Wizards – Wizards

Access SportsFormulator’s NBA predictions and see how Katelynn compares.

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Formulator Face-off – NBA February 8, 2017

We’re debuting a new feature today, Formulator Face-off!  We invite someone to pick 5 games and if he/she gets 3 of 5 correct, you save 50% on picks the next day.  If he/she gets 5 of 5 correct, picks are FREE!

Our first contestant is Holly Wolf.  If she gets these correct, you win!  Look for results on social media and discount in the Pick Shop tomorrow.

About Holly Wolf:

Website:  Hollywolf.ca
Social Media: Twitter/IG/Facebook/Twitch/Snap @hollytwolf
Favorite Sports Team: Toronto Maple Leafs

Holly Wolf NBA Picks:

Clippers at Knicks – Clippers
Raptors at Timberwolves – Raptors
Heat at Bucks – Bucks
Jazz at Pelicans – Jazz
Celtics at Kings – Celtics

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