Super Bowl XLVII Prediction

 

 

We’re a strong 7-2-1 against the spread in the NFL Playoffs and hope to cap it off with a correct Super Bowl projection.  We’ve expanded our projection beyond the score for the Super Bowl by giving you a quarter by quarter scoring breakdown and each team’s statistical leaders.

Vegas lists the 49ers as 3.5 favorites and a total of 47.5.   And the winner of Super Bowl XLVII is…

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FINAL
San Francisco 49ers 0 7 7 14 28
Baltimore Ravens 3 7 7 7 24

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Statistical Leaders for Super Bowl XLVII:

Passing:
Ravens: Joe Flacco – 16/25 for 266 yards, 2 touchdowns
49ers: Colin Kaepernick – 14/22 for 218 yards, 1 touchdown

Rushing:
Ravens: Ray Rice – 18 carries for 62 yards, 1 touchdown
49ers: Frank Gore – 22 carries for 89 yards, 2 touchdowns

Receiving:
Ravens: Anquan Boldin – 6 catches for 74 yards, 1 touchdown
49ers: Vernon Davis – 8 catches for 95 yards, 1 touchdown

Tackles:
Ravens: Ray Lewis – 8 tackles
49ers: Patrick Willis – 11 tackles

MVP of Super Bowl XLVII:  Frank Gore (49ers)

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10 Teams that Can’t Blow the 2013 NFL Draft

 

I want to help you through the NFL withdrawal of this weekend.  I’m sure you want a break from the Harbaugh brothers for a few days before Tuesday’s Super Bowl media day.   You’re probably not interested in getting your NFL fix by watching the pathetic Pro Bowl.  So we turn our attention to the 2013 NFL Draft coming to you 3 months from today!  These are the 10 teams (in draft order) that simply must make a great pick with their first selection on April 25, 2013.

1.  Kansas City Chiefs – it’s a talented roster in Kansas City that was unmotivated it seemed last season.  They limped to a 2-14 finish to claim the top spot.  They desperately need stability at the quarterback position but this isn’t the draft with a clear cut top QB much less one worthy of the top overall spot.  They should focus on the offensive line or take a pass rusher.  You simply can’t have too many good linemen (ask the 49ers) or too many pass rushers (ask the Ravens).

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars – the Jags have a new coach and really need talent.  They only won two games last year because their talent is lacking.  They will go after a pass rusher here because they face Andrew Luck and Matt Schaub twice a year.

6.  Cleveland Browns – They’ve been picking early in Cleveland for years and it’s time they make a move toward playoff contention.  They must make a pick here to impact the roster right away.  I think they’ll look for a pass rusher here though they need playmakers on offense as well.

9.  New York Jets – It’s do or die in 2013 for Rex Ryan and crew.  They need to be better after such a mess of a season in 2012.  Ryan loves guys who can pressure the QB but with a potential trade coming for Darrelle Revis, a CB might be the choice here.  Regardless, the player taken by the Jets better be an impact player to help them back to the playoffs.

12.  Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins had some bright spots last season but need more playmakers on both sides of the ball to make a playoff push.  I think Dolphins look for the best available player here.

15.  New Orleans Saints – Many in the Big Easy feel 2012 was a lost season due to the bounty scandal.  So they’re looking to rebound in 2013 with the return on Sean Payton and a new D-coordinator.  They must address the defense that was atrocious last season.  They’ll take the best defensive player on the board at 15.

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers had to watch the playoffs this year, not something they want to get comfortable with in Pittsburgh.  They’re a team that’s aging so they need to grab a player here that’ll be able to contribute to a team that should be back in playoff contention next season.  It might be time to address the secondary with the pick here.

18.  Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are a mystery.  They’ve had a talented roster for the past few seasons but can’t get over the hump and make a run to the Super Bowl.  They must have a great draft and that’ll start by drafting a lineman to solidify the pourous line they had in 2012.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals – They’ve had back to back trips to the playoffs but haven’t been able to get the W to advance.  They’re a young roster and with another good player they could get over the hump and win the AFC North and host a playoff game.  I think they go after a pass rusher here.

24.  The Indianapolis Colts – A huge 2012 season as they went from having the top pick to making the playoffs.  It’s a roster that isn’t deep with talent though and they won’t sneak up on anyone in 2013.  They’ll have a tougher schedule and need an impact player at 24.  With Dwight Freeney on his way out, drafting his replacement is a good idea here.

The SportsFormulator.com 2013 NFL Mock Draft will debut the day after the Super Bowl.

Which teams do you think must nail their first pick this April?  Post your comments below.

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NFL Conference Championship Predictions

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We went 3-1 last weekend against the spread dropping the final game of the weekend to end our perfect playoff run that started 7-0.  We’re 7-1 ATS and SU in the NFL Playoffs.  Teams have worked all year for this Sunday.  Two teams advance to the Super Bowl in New Orleans.  Here’s how the conference championships go on Sunday:

TEAM SCORE VEGAS LINE CONF %
49ers 21 48.5 46%
Falcons 23 4 54%
Ravens 21 51.5 48%
Patriots 31 -7.5 52%

Matt’s Mind on the Conference Championships:

Colin Kaepernick was spectacular last week but he was at home and against a Green Bay defense that has been poor all season.  I thiink people are overreacting to it.  I expect the Falcons to play very loose and pull the surprise and advance to the Super Bowl.  I can see the Niners winning but this is a field goal game either way.

The Ravens are a popular ATS spread as revenge tends to be their big motivator after they fell short in this same spot last year.  I think the Patriots are going to slice and dice the Ravens defense.  They have more playmakers than the Broncos who carved the Ravens last week.  I expect this to be close at the half and like last week and as much as I’d rather see anyone but them, the Patriots pull away late.

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NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

 

We had a perfect start to the NFL playoffs going 4-0 (100%) against the spread last week and called each game correctly as well with all four winners.  We’ve combined some segments into our NFL Wildcard picks as we bring picks on each game from a handicapper.

Check out our projected odds for each team to win their conference and Super Bowl XLVII.

This is how the formula sees the NFL Divisional Playoffs:

TEAM SCORE VEGAS LINE CONF %
Ravens 20 46.5 53%
Broncos 28 -9.5 47%
Texans 23 47.5 51%
Patriots 31 -9.5 49%
Seahawks 23 46 50%
Falcons 24 -2.5 50%
Packers 20 45 48%
49ers 24 -3 52%

Matt’s Picks:

Ravens at Broncos –  I think the Ravens will be out to avenge a disappointing defeat at home to the Broncos in the regular season.  The Broncos have a solid homefield advantage in this one but I look for the Ravens to run Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce a lot to keep Peyton Manning on the sideline.  I think the Ravens keep it to no more than a touchdown difference but the Broncos advance.

Texans at Patriots – Another revenge game as the Texans were blown out on Monday Night Football at the Patriots not long ago.  Then they were called out by the Boston media this week.  The Texans need to run Arian Foster as Matt Schaub has struggled of late.   I expect the Texans hang in from start to finish but not have enough to eliminate Tom Brady and the Patriots this weekend.  Take the Texans and the points.

Seahawks at Falcons – This is the toughest game to predict this weekend.  Seattle is on a roll but is banged up.  Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been practicing but expects to play and Chris Clemons is out at DE for their stellar defense.  The Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for this game and must overcome their inability to win in the playoffs.  This is the best team Atlanta has had…maybe ever.  This has to be the year they get the W in the playoffs or the heat will be on Mike Smith and Matt Ryan like never before next season.  I think the play here is the Seahawks and points since it’s a toss up game.  Either team could advance but I’ll take the Seahawks to win outright.

Packers at 49ers – I think this is the game the public is missing this weekend.  Everyone seems to be on the Packers.  I think the Packers are in for a tough game because their offensive line is still not very good.  I expect the Niners D to keep the pressure on him and a steady dose of Frank Gore to have San Francisco host another NFC Championship.  Lay the points and take the 49ers.

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NFL Wildcard Playoff Predictions

 

It’s time for our first NFL picks in 2013.  We’ve combined some segments into our NFL Wildcard picks as we bring our picks from the formula and two handicappers.

Check out our projected odds for each team to win their conference and Super Bowl XLVII.

TEAM SCORE VEGAS LINE CONF %
Bengals 21 43.5 49%
Texans 26 -4.5 51%
Vikings 22 46 46%
Packers 31 -7.5 54%
Colts 17 47 39%
Ravens 28 -7 61%
Seahawks 24 46 53%
Redskins 20 3 47%

Matt’s Mind – NFL Wildcard Weekend Edition:

Bengals at Texas (-4.5)The Texans are sputtering into the playoffs and have a rematch with the Bengals from last year’s wildcard round except Matt Schaub will play in this one.  I think the Texans get back on track and advance.

Vikings at Packers (-7.5)
These two played each other last week with the Vikes winning to qualify for the playoffs. The Packers will bounce back but I think Adrian Peterson keeps the Vikings in this one for the first half before the Pack pulls away. Packers win by double digits.

Colts at Ravens (-7)
I feel the Colts are overrated. They played a weak schedule and collide with a Ravens team ready to make a run. This Ravens’ team could see a lot of changes if they lose this game. You have the Chuck Pogano return and Ray Lewis retirement motivating both teams. I like the Ravens to win by at least 14.

Seahawks at Redskins (+3)
I think the Seahawks are a great team capable of making a run to the Super Bowl. Their defense has the playmakers to keep RGIII in check and advance. I see this being a low scoring game and will takes the Seahawks 21-17.

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Projected Odds for NFL Playoffs

 

The NFL Playoffs are now upon us as we have four games this weekend.  We decided to take the suspense (not really) out of waiting to see who will take home the Lombardi Trophy next month.  Based on our formula, we projected each team’s chance of winning both their conference and Super Bowl XLVII.

Odds to Win the AFC Championship
New England Patriots – 26%
Denver Broncos – 22%
Houston Texans – 19%
Baltimore Ravens – 15%
Cincinnati Bengals – 14%
Indianapolis Colts – 4%

Odds to Win the NFC Championship
San Francisco 49ers – 21%
Atlanta Falcons – 20%
Seattle Seahawks – 20%
Green Bay Packers – 19%
Washington Redskins – 12%
Minnesota Vikings – 8%

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII
New England Patriots – 17%
Seattle Seahawks – 13%
Denver Broncos – 12%
San Francisco 49ers -12%
Atlanta Falcons – 11%
Green Bay Packers – 10%
Houston Texans – 9%
Baltimore Ravens – 5%
Cincinnati Bengals – 4%
Washington Redskins – 4%
Minnesota Vikings – 2%
Indianapolis Colts – 1%

You’re saying say to yourself how do the Seahawks have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the 49ers when the 49ers have a better chance of winning the NFC. Simply, we ran every scenario for the playoffs in calculating these odds and in some cases the Seahawks have a higher winning percentage against some teams than the 49ers.

Odds of Conference Win Super Bowl XLVII
NFC – 54%
AFC – 46%

These odds are calculated based on all the potential Super Bowl XLVII match-ups, not by simply adding up the odds of each team in the conference’s odds of winning.

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NFL Week 17 Predictions


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The NFL winds down this week and 20 teams play their final game.  Some have little to play for while others are jockeying for playoff position.  RGIII has his chance to become a DC legend with a win over the Cowboys to win the NFC East and send the Redskins to the playoffs.  This is how we see the final week of the 2012 NFL season playing out:

TEAM SCORE VEGAS LINE
Jets 17 39
Bills 23 -3
Dolphins 17 46.5
Patriots 30 -10
Ravens 20 41
Bengals 21 -2.5
Browns 10 34.5
Steelers 24 -10
Texans 28 46.5
Colts 17 6.5
Jaguars 21 42
Titans 20 -4
Eagles 17 46
Giants 30 -7
Cowboys 24 49
Redskins 23 -3
Bears 24 45
Lions 21 3
Packers 34 46
Vikings 24 3
Buccaneers 24 45
Falcons 31 -5
Panthers 21 54
Saints 33 -5
Chiefs 10 42
Broncos 34 -16
Raiders 17 39
Chargers 28 -9.5
Cardinals 7 39
49ers 34 -16.5
Rams 10 41
Seahawks 31 -10.5

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

 

The NFL winds down this weekend with Week 17 wrapping up the 2012 season.  We ran our numbers and here are how we rank the 32 NFL teams for NFL Week 17.

 

Team Power Rating
Seattle Seahawks 100
Atlanta Falcons 98.5
New England Patriots 98
Denver Broncos 98
Green Bay Packers 97.5
Houston Texans 97.5
San Francisco 49ers 96
Chicago Bears 94
Baltimore Ravens 93.5
Cincinnati Bengals 93
Washington Redskins 92
New York Giants 90
Minnesota Vikings 89.5
New Orleans Saints 88.5
Carolina Panthers 85
San Diego Chargers 85
Miami Dolphins 85
Pittsburgh Steelers 85
Dallas Cowboys 84.5
Indianapolis Colts 84
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 84
St. Louis Rams 82.5
Cleveland Browns 82.5
Arizona Cardinals 79
New York Jets 78
Detroit Lions 77.5
Tennessee Titans 76.5
Buffalo Bills 76.5
Philadelphia Eagles 74.5
Oakland Raiders 74
Jacksonville Jaguars 74
Kansas City Chiefs 72

 

NFL Week 16 Predictions

 

Week 16 is an eliminator for several teams trying to make the playoffs.  We see some games being lopsided as there appear to be some mismatches this week.  Here’s how NFL Week 16 plays out:

TEAM SCORE VEGAS LINE
Falcons 28 -3.5
Lions 24 50.5
Titans 13 12.5
Packers 37 46
Raiders 17 8.5
Panthers 27 46
Bills 17 4.5
Dolphins 24 41.5
Bengals 17 3.5
Steelers 24 42
Patriots 37 -14.5
Jaguars 14 50
Colts 24 -7
Chiefs 20 41.5
Saints 28 3
Cowboys 27 51.5
Redskins 27 -6.5
Eagles 20 45
Rams 16 3
Buccaneers 24 43.5
Giants 23 -2.5
Ravens 24 47.5
Vikings 16 7.5
Texans 28 45
Browns 14 13
Broncos 30 44.5
Bears 24 -5.5
Cardinals 13 36.5
49ers 21 -1
Seahawks 20 39
Chargers 21 2.5
Jets 20 39

NFL Week 16 Power Ratings


We head to week 16 after watching some teams separate last weekend.  Still have some teams jockeying for playoff position while some are making draft plans.  These are how all 32 NFL teams stack up heading into week 16.

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Team Power Rating
New England Patriots 100
San Francisco 49ers 99.5
Houston Texans 98.5
Atlanta Falcons 98
Seattle Seahawks 97.5
Denver Broncos 97.5
Chicago Bears 95
Green Bay Packers 95
Cincinnati Bengals 94
Baltimore Ravens 93
New York Giants 93
Washington Redskins 91
Minnesota Vikings 88.5
New Orleans Saints 87.5
Dallas Cowboys 87.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 87
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 85.5
Miami Dolphins 84.5
Cleveland Browns 84
Indianapolis Colts 84
Carolina Panthers 84
San Diego Chargers 83.5
St. Louis Rams 82
Arizona Cardinals 80.5
Detroit Lions 79.5
New York Jets 78.5
Tennessee Titans 78
Buffalo Bills 77.5
Oakland Raiders 74.5
Philadelphia Eagles 74.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 74.5
Kansas City Chiefs 72.5