Matt’s Mind: Projecting NFL Week 1 Point Spreads

 

The 2013 NFL Schedule is out so we know who each team is focused on to start the season.  With that in mind, I thought I’d offer what I see as the opening lines for each game in week 1 of the 2013 season.  These will be altered by the draft and any potential roster changes coming a little but this is what I expect the lines to open at when they’re officially released by bookmakers.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

A rematch from the playoffs where a Peyton Manning interception help springboard the Ravens to the Super Bowl.  This is a huge game for the Broncos to start the year.  The Ravens will be putting together a new team but John Harbaugh always has his team ready to play.

Projected Line:  Broncos -3

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are a mess.  If Gronk will be ready for this one this line could go up but I’d say the Pats will be seven point road favorites against a team they

Projected Line:  Patriots -6.5

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers come off a disappointing year where they didn’t make the playoffs.  They should be motivated to start the year with a W.

Projected Line: Steelers -4

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton will be back on the sideline and have the Saints ready.  However the Falcons are loaded.  With Tony Gonzales deciding not to retire and bringing in Steven Jackson has their offense the best it’s been in years.  This should be high scoring and you should just be able to pick the winner here instead of worrying about a spread.

Projected Line:  Pick ‘Em

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets

It could be the start of the final season for many of the Jets.  I think their home field advantage gets them installed as a slight favorite.

Projected Line: Jets -1

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Line: Pick ‘Em

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

A great year last year for the Seahawks and they look to have gotten better this offseason.  Cam Newton will have to get better after taking a step back in his second season.  The Panthers are a good home team so this spread should be tight.

Projected Line:  Seahawks -3

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

This game is the hardest to project.  I’m not sure where bookmakers will open Marc Trestman’s Bears.  I think being at home makes the Bears a very slight favorite but I like the Bengals to win this game.

Projected Line:  Bears -1

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

A tough game to project.  The Browns play well at home but I expect the Dolphins to be much improved.

Projected Line:  Pick ‘Em

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

An even matchup here but the Lions get the home field advantage bump.

Projected Line: Lions -3

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Big expectations for Andrew Luck coming off an impressive rookie year leading the Colts to the playoffs.  The defense will have seen changes but the Raiders have a lot of holes and the Colts should be the biggest week 1 favorites.

Projected Line:  Colts -7

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

The Packers should be motivated for this one after being beaten down by the Niners twice last season.  The Niners rolled into Green Bay last year and looked great winning in week 1.  Then San Fran hosted the Pack in the playoffs and blew them out.

Projected Line: 49ers -6

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

I really expect the Rams to be improved in Jeff Fisher’s second season.  He’s a great coach and you could see them getting better each week last season.  The Cardinals will be breaking in Bruce Arians as head coach.  He was great in Indy last year but might not have as much talent as he had there.

Projected Line: Rams -3.5

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

A pretty even matchup here as well but bookmakers will give the Cowboys the standard 3 point home field advantage.

Projected Line:  Cowboys -3

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Questions abound in this game.  Will Chip Kelly’s Eagles be fully functional in his offense for this game?  Will RGIII play?  Redskins should be favored whether he plays or not but the number will be deflated if he doesn’t.

Projected Line: Redskins -4

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers

The disappointing Norv Turner era is over and Mike McCoy is in charge of the Chargers.  The Texas are still one of the league’s most talented teams and I expect them to be ready to win on the road week 1.

Projected Line: Texas -3

Check out how I think the 2013 NFL Draft Should Go.

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