Survivor Pool Pick Strategy – Week 3 of 2016:
We start with our list of 16 predicted winners:
Patriots (vs. Texans)
Bengals (vs. Broncos)
Raiders (at Titans)
Cardinals (at Bills)
Jaguars (vs. Ravens)
Dolphins (vs. Browns)
Giants (vs. Redskins)
Packers (vs. Lions)
Panthers (vs. Vikings)
Seahawks (vs. 49ers)
Bucs (vs. Rams)
Steelers (at Eagles)
Chiefs (vs. Jets)
Colts (vs. Chargers)
Cowboys (vs. Bears)
Saints (vs. Falcons)
Now there are five steps to easily cut down your potential pick for your NFL survivor pool.
Eliminate Toss-Up Winners
First we eliminate toss-up games. That means we’re cutting the 1 point winners out of the list. Five teams are predicted to win “toss-up games” in week 3.
Eliminated are the Patriots, Raiders, Cardinals, Cowboys and Saints. We’re down to 11 potential picks.
Eliminate Road Winners
Next we eliminate road teams. I don’t like taking road teams to win in the NFL at all. Just too risky when you need a win, go with a home team. All of our road winners in week 3 have already been eliminated so we’re still at 11 teams left.
Eliminate Low Ranking Winners
Next, I look for team that aren’t in our 20 of the power rankings. This eliminates four teams, the Dolphins (24), Colts (26) , Bucs (29) and Jaguars (31). We have seven teams remaining.
Eliminate Winners Playing Good Teams
Then, I look for our predicted winners that are playing teams ranked in the top 16 and take them out of consideration. This eliminates the Bengals, Chiefs and Steelers. We have four team left to make our survivor pool pick for this week, Seahawks, Panthers, Packers and Giants.
Eliminate the Teams We’ve Already Picked in 2016
We’ve picked the Panthers and Texans already this season so neither is considered for this week. The Texans are projected to lose at Patriots on Thursday night anyway.
And then there were three…Seahawks, Packers and Giants.
Final Survivor Pool Pick Candidates
3 – Seahawks – Their offense is struggling mightily and even being at home, I’d be cautious with this pick. The 49ers put up points on the road last week at a good Panthers team. Seattle will need to score this week to win.
2 – Giants – The Giants host the Redskins and we predict a 3 point win. This is a divisional game where the Redskins should show up and give extra effort not trying to start 0-3.
1 – Packers – The Packers come off a disappointing loss at Minnesota on Sunday night. They’ll be at home hosting a Lions team that they have superior talent to this week. Take the Packers to survive to week 4.