Survivor Pool Pick Strategy:
We start with our list of 15 predicted NFL week 4 winners (Eagles and Packers are on a bye week):
Bengals (against Dolphins)
Jaguars (against Colts)
Redskins (against Browns)
Patriots (against Bills)
Jets (against Seahawks)
Panthers (at Falcons)
Bears (against Lions)
Texans (against Titans)
Ravens (against Raiders)
Broncos (at Bucs)
49ers (against Cowboys)
Chargers (against Saints)
Cardinals (against Rams)
Steelers (against Chiefs)
Vikings (against Giants)
Now there are five steps to easily cut down your potential pick for your NFL survivor pool.
1 – Eliminate Toss-Up Winners
First we eliminate toss-up games. That means we’re cutting the 1 point winners out of the list. Gone are the Jets, Ravens and 49ers. We’ve got 12 teams left in consideration.
2 – Eliminate Road Winners
Next we eliminate road teams. I don’t like taking road teams to win in the NFL at all. Just too risky when you need a win, go with a home team.
Eliminating predicted road winners, the Super Bowl 50 teams are out. With the Broncos and Panthers no longer being considered, we have 10 teams remaining.
3 – Eliminate Low Ranking Winners
Next, I look for team that aren’t in our 20 of the power rankings. The Bears (32), Jaguars (31) and Redskins (27) are predicted to win in week 4 but aren’t good enough to risk surviving the week with right now. We have seven teams left to consider.
4 – Eliminate Winners Playing Good Teams
Then, I look for our predicted winners that are playing teams ranked in the top 16 and take them out of consideration. This eliminates the Vikings against the 13th ranked Giants and the Steelers against the 5th ranked Chiefs. We have five teams to consider for survival.
5 – Eliminate the Teams We’ve Already Picked in 2016
We’ve picked the Texans, Panthers and Packers in previous weeks (3-0). The Panthers have already been eliminated from consideration and the Packers are off this week. We knock the Texans from contention and are down to four potential picks to survive NFL week 4.
Final Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Candidates
4 – Bengals (against Dolphins) – The Bengals are at home on Thursday night. I don’t trust the Thursday night games as teams tend to stray from their typical performances on that night.
3 – Patriots (against Bills) – After last week’s performance it’s hard to see the Patriots ever losing. If they can trot a third string QB out and shutout a playoff team 27-0, they’re pretty safe. However they’re playing a divisional foe and that makes this game a little more dangerous.
2 – Cardinals (against Rams) – The Cardinals are a strong home performer. The Rams seem to figured out some offensive problems last week but can they hang with a high powered offense like the Cardinals? The Cardinals should win convincingly.
1 – Chargers (against Saints) – The Chargers are good at home and the Saints struggle on the road. Take Phillip Rivers to get the W and survive and advance to NFL week 5. The Chargers are your NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Pick.