Predicting the College Football Playoff (Week 4 – 2014)

We’re three weeks in and the college playoff picture is still murky but we try to predict what the committee will do.  Then tell you how it’ll play out in crowing our first college football playoff champion.

The committee is picking four teams from the power 5 conferences.  While BYU and Notre Dame have had their moments, we don’t see either making it unscathed through the regular season.  So we’ve got to analyze how the power five conferences will finish and go with what the committee will look for in choosing the college football final four.

The ACC looks like it’ll be decided this weekend with Clemson at Florida State.  The Seminoles should win here and cruise through the rest of the regular season.  They’ll get challenged a couple of times but we forecast an undefeated regular season and ACC Championship for Florida State.  The defending national champs are in the first ever college football playoff.

The Big Ten has yet to get a marque win and has some very bad losses.  The league has looked weak outside of Michigan State.  The Spartans had a solid performance but faded toward the end against Oregon.  Otherwise this league has struggled and will need Wisconsin to run the table and set-up a Big Ten Championship Game against a 1 loss Michigan State team to have any chance.  As of now, the Big Ten is gonna be left out of the college football playoff.

The Big XII has two strong contenders for the playoff who will meet and probably determine their representative for the playoff.  Baylor is #1 and Oklahoma #5 in our power rankings this week.  These two collide in Norman which should be one of the biggest games of the 2014 season.  We project the Sooners to win and be chosen for the college football playoff.

The Pac-12 won the biggest game of the first three weeks of the season as Oregon handed Michigan State a loss.  They’ve won some other key match-ups against power 5 teams and look good for sending their champion to the playoff.  The Ducks are #4 in our power rankings this week and look to be the team to beat in the conference.  A lot depends on Brett Hundley’s injury.  If he can return to 100%, UCLA is a contender.  USC losing at Boston College this week hurt the conference and the Trojans’ chances significantly of making the playoff should they win the Pac-12.  With teams in our top 30 power rankings, the Pac-12 champ will make the playoff.

The SEC hasn’t had a lot of big non-conference matches early this season to show their muscle but they do lie ahead.  The league is showing strength early as it has 11 (of 14) teams in our top 30.  We still project Alabama to win the SEC but the league is looking like it could beat each other up with so many tough teams.  Making it through the eight game gauntlet of the SEC undefeated this season will be difficult.  The only way the SEC has a shot of being left out of the playoff is if their champ has two losses.  The Tide will roll to the playoff.

College Football Final Four

So we’ve sorted out the contender and project Florida State from the ACC, Oklahoma from the Big XII, Oregon from the Pac-12 and Alabama from the SEC.  Now seeding them will be difficult.  It’ll come down to final record and then strength of schedule.  Florida State we project has having the least difficult path the rest of the season so we project them as the top seed.  Alabama as champions of the SEC will grab the second seed.  Oklahoma will get the third seed and Oregon the fourth as they project to have the greatest chance of losing a regular season game.

In forecasting these games, the formula projects a tight affair between the top seed Florida State and fourth seeded Oregon.  We predict Florida State will advance to the title game to defend their national championship.

In the other semifinal, we are now predicting Oklahoma to beat Alabama in a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl.  This would be two straight for Bob Stoops’ team over the Tide.

In the College Football Playoff Championship, we have the ‘Noles edging the Sooners by 1.  It sets up as a great matchup.  Let’s hope the committee chooses the four best teams and gets the playoff off to a great start.