This edition of Formulator Focus is for the week 9 Pac-12 college football battle between the Arizona State Sun Devils and USC Trojans.
The winner here becomes the favorite to represent the Pac-12 South in the conference championship game. The game kicks off at 10:45 ET Saturday night and can be seen on ESPN.
USC at Arizona State Preview
USC comes in off of a 49-14 loss in primetime at Notre Dame last Saturday. The Trojans are 6-2 overall but have lost their last two road games. They are ranked 27th in our power rankings this week.
Arizona State enters the game having won two straight including a 13-7 upset of Washington and 30-10 win at Utah last week. The Sun Devils are 4-3 on the season and ranked 39th in our power rankings this week.
The Vegas line has USC -3 with a total of 57.5 points.
Now let’s look at the numbers for this match-up.
USC Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| USC Offense | VS | Arizona State Defense | |
| Points For | 31.9 | Points Against | 28.4 |
| Passing Yards For | 291.9 | Pass Yards Against | 251.7 |
| Rush Yards | 167.5 | Rush Yards Ag | 164.4 |
| Third Down Conversion % | 44.86% | Third Down Conversion % Allowed | 40% |
| Red Zone Coversion % | 78.57% | Red Zone Conversion % Allowed | 91.30% |
USC Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Arizona State Offense | VS | USC Defense | |
| Points For | 29.4 | Points Against | 26.9 |
| Passing Yards For | 267.4 | Pass Yards Against | 223.9 |
| Rush Yards | 127.4 | Rush Yards Ag | 175.5 |
| Third Down Conversion % | 41.74% | Third Down Conversion % Allowed | 36.89% |
| Red Zone Coversion % | 100% | Red Zone Conversion % Allowed | 68.97% |
Game Changers – USC vs. Arizona State
| USC | Arizona State | |
| Turnover Margin Per Game | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalties Per Game | 60.9 | 31 |
| Opp Penalties Per Game | 50.6 | 66.1 |
Final Analysis
The Formula has been great against the spread in games involving these two teams. In 15 combined games in 2017, we have accurately predicted the ATS winner in 13 (87%) of those games. We’ve predicted the correct winner of each USC game this season. We have predicted USC to win by 5 in this game. Let’s ride with the Trojans this week.
Free Pick for USC at Arizona State – USC -3
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