This edition of Formulator Focus is for the biggest match-up of week 9 of the 2017 college football season as the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Penn State Nittany Lions.
This is the marquee game of week 9 in college football. The winner here not only becomes the favorite to win the Big Ten, they become a favorite to make the College Football Playoff. The game starts at 3:30 ET and can be seen Saturday on FOX.
Ohio State at Penn State Preview
After last season, each team has a reason for revenge. Ohio State wants revenge for losing at Penn State last year. Penn State wants revenge because despite winning the Big Ten Title, the Buckeyes got a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes come in to to the game 6-1 and ranked #2 in our power rankings this week. The Nittany Lions are undefeated at 7-0 and ranked #3 in our power rankings.
The Vegas line is Ohio State -6.5 with a total of 57.5.
Now let’s look at some numbers for this match-up.
Ohio State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Ohio State Offense | VS | Penn State Defense |
| Points For | 47.3 | Points Against |
| Passing Yards For | 325.1 | Pass Yards Against |
| Rush Yards | 252.1 | Rush Yards Ag |
| Third Down Conversion % | 49.44% | Third Down Conversion % Allowed |
| Red Zone Coversion % | 85.71% | Red Zone Conversion % Allowed |
Penn State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Penn State Offense | VS | Ohio State Defense |
| Points For | 40 | Points Against |
| Passing Yards For | 289.9 | Pass Yards Against |
| Rush Yards | 173.4 | Rush Yards Ag |
| Third Down Conversion % | 39.33% | Third Down Conversion % Allowed |
| Red Zone Coversion % | 84.38% | Red Zone Conversion % Allowed |
Game Changers – Ohio State vs. Penn State
| Ohio State | Penn State | |
| Turnover Margin Per Game | 1 | 1.7 |
| Penalties Per Game | 74.4 | 34.6 |
| Opp Penalties Per Game | 51.6 | 48.9 |
Final Analysis
The Formula has accurately predicted the straight up winner of 6 of 7 games (missed on Oklahoma vs. Ohio State) for the Buckeyes and is 7-0 in games involving the Nittany Lions.
The Formula has missed on the total of every Ohio State game this year and only hit 3 of 7 on Penn State games. We predict a Buckeyes win 34-32. Last season, these two combined for 45, 11 under the total.
Free Pick for Ohio State at Penn State – Take the UNDER 56.5
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