Expert NFL Picks for Week 1 – How to Bet Every NFL Game

by Matt Fischer

Week 1 is here and it’s time to get back to betting on football!  As a Chiefs fan, I’m excited for this season and hopefully a repeat Super Bowl Championship.  Also winning a lot of money betting on NFL all season.  I’ll give you a pick on every game plus my best bets and a NFL parlay for week 1.  Let’s get to the picks!

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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 54) – Thursday Night Football

Continuity is going to be crucial for teams this NFL season.  A lack of offseason and preseason is going to make it harder for teams to fit new pieces in and the Texans are one of those teams.  Trading superstar WR Deandre Hopkins to the Cardinals for David Johnson could signal a shift in the offensive focus for the Texans.  They should look to run more instead of having Deshaun Watson throw so much.

The Chiefs defense got better and better as they adjust to their new scheme last season.  With their first game back at Arrowhead as reigning Super Bowl Champions be an emotional drain on them?  You see adrenaline dumps from champs in their first game back celebrating a title. 

The Chiefs return virtually intact from the Super Bowl with LSU rookie Clyde Edwards- Helaire replacing Super Bowl hero Damien Williams. 

The Bet:  Chiefs -9.5

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)

Looks as though Mitch Trubisky will be starting at QB again for the Bears.  Take the Lions.

The Bet:  Lions -3

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 48.5)

The Browns are going to be much better this year.  Kevin Stefanski will maximize Baker Mayfield’s playmaking ability. 

The Ravens were dismantled at home in a playoff loss to the Titans.  Have teams figured out how to contain Lamar Jackson?  I think the Browns have a chance to win outright in Baltimore two years in a row so I’ll gladly take more than a touchdown with them.

The Bet:  Browns +8.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 46)

After the Packers drafted Jordan Love in round 1, you knew Aaron Rodgers would be extra motivated in 2020.  Can he overcome a talented Vikings team though?  Rodgers didn’t get any upgrades at the offensive skill positions and he lost Bryan Bulaga on the O-line.

The Vikings are more talented and I think they win this game but the smarter play in on the total

The Bet:  Under 46

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I think the Jaguars players are going to play to win but it’s gonna be hard to beat teams with you have the least talent in the league.  Phillip Rivers wins his debut with the Colts.  I’ve got a problem laying a touchdown though with the Colts so I’ll take them moneyline in my parlay (keep scrolling for it) and take the total.

The Bet:  Under 45

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 47) at Carolina Panthers

I think Carolina is vastly underrated.  Matt Rhule is a great coach and Teddy Bridgewater is a steady hand at QB you can trust.  Can you say that about the Raiders?  This is a small spread and with less than 7% of NFL games since 2002 being decided by 1 or 2 points, I’m betting Panthers to win outright.

The Bet:  Panthers Moneyline

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 40)

The Dolphins shocked the world winning at New England in the season finale last year when the Pats needed that win to secure the second seed in the AFC Playoffs. 

Fitzmagic is back for the ‘Phins and with a Patriots defense depleted due to opt outs, I like the Dolphins to take this one to the wire again and maybe pull an upset again.

The Bet:  Dolphins +6.5

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 40)

With such a low total, it’s hard to justify laying a touchdown in this game.  A fluke play could blow the spread.  I think the Bills win but my confidence in them winning by more than a TD is shaky and since I can see it being a low scoring game I’ll take the points.

The Bet:  Jets +6.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 43) at Washington Football Team

A tumultuous offseason for the team formerly known as the Redskins makes me think they’re going to once again be in the hunt for the #1 pick in the NFL Draft.  Ron Rivera inherited a mess that will not be easy to clean up with such a limited offseason and no preseason games.  I’ll be surprised if Washington scores more than 14 so I’m leaning more toward playing the total on this game.

The Bet:  Under 43

Seattle Seahawks (-1, 49) at Atlanta Falcons

You never know what you’re going to get with the Falcons. They’ve got the talent to hang with anyone but at times look like they have no business even thinking about being a playoff team.  Seattle is much steadier so I’m going to with them since it’s basically a pick ‘em spread.

The Bet:  Seahawks -1

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 44) at Cincinnati Bengals

A lot of unknowns in this game.  Joe Burrow is making his first NFL start.  He should have weapons around him to move the ball against a good Chargers defense.  I have a hard time giving over a field goal on the road especially with a mediocre team.

The Bet:  Bengals +3.5

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 47)

Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are going to be formidable and get a great test against the reigning NFC Champion 49ers.  I don’t think the Cardinals go away in this one and think they’ll have a chance late to steal a win on the road. 

The Bet:  Cardinals +7

Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 49.5)

Tom Brady makes debut with the Bucs and is headed for a shootout with Drew Brees in the Superdome. 

I expect Bruce Arians to let it all hang out in this week 1 matchup so look for the Bucs to go down the field for big plays and trade back and forth with the Saints.  I see this as a field goal game so if I can get over a field goal with the Bucs I’m taking it.

The Bet:  Bucs +3.5

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 51.5) at Los Angeles Rams – (Sunday Night Football)

It’s gonna be a long season for the Rams.  Their offensive proficiency has greatly fallen off since their Super Bowl run of two years ago as teams have adapted to their style of play.

Dak Prescott is playing for a new contract so I expect him to play great with the national stage of Sunday Night Football.  Mike McCarthy lets him loose and the Cowboys win by double digits.

The Bet:  Cowboys -2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 48) at New York Giants – (Monday Night Football)

I don’t know what to expect out of Coach Judge and the Giants.  I’m pretty sure the Steelers defense is gonna show up and be ready for whatever is thrown at them.  48 is too many points when I expect one team to score less than 20 in the Giants.

The Bet:  Under 48

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2, 41) (Monday Night Football)

Mile High can be a great equalizer for the Broncos. I think the Titans are the better team and their creative offense can put them in good position to win on the road.

Is Drew Lock ready to move forward and beat a team that was one win away from the Super Bowl?

Like I mentioned earlier, less than 7% of games have been decided by fewer than 3 points since 2002. I’ll take the Titans to win but I’d pass on this game.

The Bet: Titans moneyline

My NFL Week 1 Best Bets:

  1. Browns +8.5
  2. Panthers Moneyline
  3. Cardinals +7
  4. Cowboys -2.5

My NFL Week 1 Parlay (12 teamer in no particular order)

  • Chiefs Moneyline
  • Dolphins +6.5
  • Bills Moneyline
  • Panthers Moneyline
  • Seahawks -1
  • Eagles Moneyline
  • Lions -3
  • Colts Moneyline
  • Cardinals +7
  • Bucs +3.5
  • Cowboys -2.5
  • Steelers/Giants Under 48

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