Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction and Simulation for a College Football Playoff Spot

Time heals all wounds…or so they say. I don’t know if time will ever heal the wound the College Football Playoff committee gave Florida State on December 3, 2023 when they chose the once defeated Alabama Crimson Tide over the Seminoles for the 2023 College Football Playoff.  The ‘Noles lost their superstar QB Jordan Travis late in the season but we’re still able to defeat rival Florida and win the ACC Championship game over the #14 CFB committee ranked Louisville Cardinals.  Still not good enough for the committee, they told undefeated Florida State it was not worthy of one of the four playoff spots.

So we’ve decided to play this one out with our super simulator and see how the Jordan Travis-less ‘Noles would fare against the #4 Tide. This simulation ignores all of the players who’ve opted out or for the transfer portal.  This won’t ignore the injuries though. 

***This is a 1 game simulation, not an average of multiple simulations***

What's Inside

Florida State Seminoles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

First Quarter

Alabama’s offense started strong, showcasing their well-oiled passing game. However, Florida State’s defense, particularly Kalen DeLoach, put up a tough front. A key interception by FSU’s Jarrian Jones halted a promising drive. Florida State, with Brock Glenn stepping in, showed a conservative approach but managed a field goal. End of First Quarter: Alabama 0, Florida State 3.

Second Quarter

The second quarter saw Alabama’s Jase McClellan break through for a touchdown, capitalizing on a balanced attack. FSU responded with Trey Benson finding a gap for a significant gain, setting up a touchdown. Alabama’s defense, led by Caleb Downs, tightened up, limiting FSU’s progress. Halftime Score: Alabama 7, Florida State 10.

Third Quarter

Post-halftime, Alabama adjusted their strategy. A deep pass from Milroe to Jermaine Burton resulted in a spectacular touchdown. Florida State, feeling the pressure, struggled with consistency, but managed a field goal thanks to Ryan Fitzgerald’s reliable kicking. End of Third Quarter: Alabama 14, Florida State 13.

Fourth Quarter

The final quarter was a display of resilience. Alabama’s defense, with Chris Braswell making key tackles, kept FSU at bay. Florida State’s defense, however, stood firm too, forcing a turnover. In a thrilling finish, Brock Glenn led a drive resulting in a touchdown pass to Keon Coleman. Alabama, with time running out, couldn’t capitalize on their final possession. Final Score: Alabama 14, Florida State 20.

Player Stats:

  • Offense (Alabama): Milroe threw for 250 yards, 2 TDs; McClellan rushed for 80 yards, 1 TD.
  • Defense (Alabama): Downs with 8 tackles; Braswell with a sack and forced fumble.
  • Offense (Florida State): Glenn passed for 180 yards, 1 TD; Benson rushed for 100 yards.
  • Defense (Florida State): DeLoach with 9 tackles; Jones with an interception.

Florida State clinches a spot in the college football playoffs with a thrilling victory over Alabama, demonstrating resilience and strategic gameplay. Brock Glenn’s performance under pressure was commendable, and the defensive units of both teams played pivotal roles in this nail-biter of a match.

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