Matt’s Mind: NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks

Welcome to a new feature here at SportsFormulator, NFL Confidence Picks to help you win your weekly office pool.  For the rest of the season and beyond, I’ll give you my rankings on each game’s winner.  Let’s get to picks for 2013 NFL Week 14:

16 (most confident) – New England Patriots (against Cleveland Browns) – The Pats are a great home team and Cleveland’s defense has started to struggle.  We’ve got the Pats winning this one by a comfortable 22 point margin.

15 – Denver Broncos (against Tennessee Titans) – The Broncos will jump out early and the Titans just aren’t made to come from behind.  The are in the race for home field in at the AFC so they’re going to be out to dominate.

14 – Baltimore Ravens (against Minnesota Vikings) – The Vikings were able to win last week in OT but now go on the road against a Baltimore team trying to stay in the playoff chase.

13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (against Buffalo Bills) – The Bucs turned their season around and have been playing well the past few weeks.

12 – Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington Redskins) – The Chiefs were undefeated heading into their week 10 bye.  Since then they’ve lost 3 straight but the offense has played better while the defense has been worse.  I think this one comes down to Andy Reid’s familiarity with the Redskins from his days in Philly and will have a game plan for KC to get win 10.

11 – San Diego Chargers (against New York Giants) – San Diego has been inconsistent this season but plays well at home.  I think they’re going to be able to exploit the Giants defense and win.

10 – Cincinnati Bengals (against Indianapolis Colts) – These two could rematch in a month in the AFC playoffs.  I think A.J. Green is going to be the difference maker in this game as the Colts don’t have anyone to really match-up with him.

9 – Arizona Cardinals (against St. Louis Rams) – I think this is a great match-up.  These two are fighting for respect as they’re overlooked in being in the NFC West with Seattle and San Fran.  The Cardinals usually find a way to pull out games at home.

8 – Philadelphia Eagles (against Detroit Lions) – I think the Lions are a more talented team overall but they tend to not play that well outdoors.  I think Nick Foles keeps it going and Shady McCoy will have a good game to keep the Eagles winning.

7 – Jacksonville Jaguars (against Houston Texans) – These two don’t have much to play for and it’s a dreaded Thursday night game.  The Jags have been playing better and having to not travel for this divisional game should give them the edge.

6 – Green Bay Packers (against Atlanta Falcons) – The Packers are looking to comeback from a lopsided loss on Thanksgiving.  The Falcons have to travel to the cold of Lambeau.  The Packers should keep running the ball and be able to win this one.

5 – New Orleans Saints (against Carolina Panthers) – This is a razor thin margin in our projections.  The Saints are looking to rebound from the beating they got in Seattle.  This is a huge opportunity for the Panthers to seize the NFC South with a big road win.

4 – Pittsburgh Steelers (against Miami Dolphins) – The Steelers are looking to move past the Mike Tomlin controversy this week.  Mike Wallace returns to face his former team in Pittsburgh.  This should be close but I’ll take Big Ben to lead his team to a hard fought victory.

3 – Oakland Raiders (at New York Jets) – It’s just hard to go with the Jets with the extreme ineptitude of their offense.  The Raiders have had some extra time to rest after their Thanksgiving game so they should be ready for the cross country trip.

2 – San Francisco 49ers (against Seattle Seahawks) – This is the biggest game of the weekend.  A lot on the line for both teams as they jockey for playoff positioning.  The Niners being at home get a very small edge but it could go either way.

1 (least confident) – Dallas Cowboys (at Chicago Bears) – This is a true toss-up game.  I think the Cowboys are out to prove something to a national audience and can edge the Bears but this one is very close.

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