The NBA Finals tip off tonight. The San Antonio Spurs have been waiting over a week for this game while the Heat just advanced on Monday night winning a Game 7 to eliminate the Indiana Pacers.
The Heat have momentum coming off of that Game 7 win and having home court should get them a win to start the series. I expect San Antonio to be a little out of rhythm in the first half as they get back adjusted to playing a real opponent.
Game 2 is where the series starts to swing. I think the Spurs will do what the Pacers did most of their series with the Heat…stay on the shooters. They will allow LeBron and D-Wade to drive to the basket but won’t double or collapse on them leaving Mike Miller, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, etc. open for a three. The Heat hit open threes in Game 7 and that’s what blew the game open. San Antonio won’t do that. I expect Tony Parker to take control of this game and send it to San Antonio tied at 1-1.
Due to the format of the NBA Finals, it often makes gives a bigger home court advantage than prior rounds as the “visitor” gets three straight home games in the middle of the series. I think the Spurs will benefit from that. I look for Tim Duncan to have huge games at home as he looks for another NBA Championship. His low post game should be too much for any of the Heat defenders to handle as he banks it off the glass for two or finds the open many for an easy basket. I look for the Spurs to win all three at home never allowing the Heat to get back to Miami for a Game 6.
I think San Antonio with a great point guard, outstanding coaching and a low post presence will simply be too much for Miami. The Spurs aren’t a team that commits a lot of turnovers that would lead to easy baskets for the Heat. Chris Bosh simply will be no more effective in this series than the last. It’ll be up to LeBron James and Dwayne Wade to carry the Heat. I just can’t see them being able to do it again against a team as good as San Antonio.
NBA Finals Prediction: San Antonio Spurs in 5
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