by Matt Fischer
My weekly NFL survivor pool pick column is one of the most read pages here at SportsFormulator so I decided to do a Super Bowl Survivor column! I’ll give you my strategy for picking the pre-playoffs Super Bowl Champion using a simply criteria to cut down from 12 teams.
Who will win Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta? We start with 12 teams total, six from the AFC and six from the NFC. I’ll cut down and reveal my top 4 predicted Super Bowl XLIII match-ups.
Super Bowl Strategy
Blow Out Losers
If you lost by 20 points or more this season, you’re not gonna win the Super Bowl. Remember the Cowboys losing 23-0 in Indianapolis? How about when Tennessee beat New England 34-10? See ya later Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots! The Eagles were blown out on Sunday Night Football by the Saints but that wasn’t Nick “Super” Foles’ Eagles. 10 teams remain.
Blow Out Winners
I want a team that can dominate. Doesn’t matter if it was another playoff team or a top 5 pick in the draft team. Blow teams out. I’m looking for teams that have at least two 20+ point wins.
The Houston Texans are the only playoff team not to accomplish this so they’re out. We’re at nine teams.
Must be a Road Warrior
We need road warriors to win the Super Bowl. Team that can win away from home. Good teams win on the road in the NFL. If you didn’t have a winning record on the road this season go home!
The Ravens, Colts, Eagles and Seahawks were 4-4 on the road this season. Maybe next year guys. We’re down to five teams left in our Super Bowl Survivor.
Get Touchdowns
Get it in the endzone! Super Bowl Champs score touchdowns, not field goals. Four of our five teams are in the top 10 at converting red zone attempts to touchdowns. The Los Angeles Rams are 18th so they’re eliminated not Super Bowl consideration. We’re down to four teams, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears.
Don’t Beat Yourself
Finally I look for teams that don’t beat themselves. That means I don’t want a team that loses the teams that have poor turnover or penalties per play margins. I want top 10 teams in both of those categories.
The Chargers are only #17 in turnover margin and are out of so they’re out. The Chiefs lead the league in penalties per play so they’re no longer in contention either.
We’re down to two teams. The Saints are more penalized than their opposition per play so they’re out.
The Chicago Bears are my predicted Super Bowl 53 Champions.
Why the Bears to Win Super Bowl 53?
- Two 20+ point victories this season
- 5-3 on the road
- 66.67% Redzone Conversions for Touchdowns
- 2nd in Turnover Margin
- 3rd in Penalty Per Play Margin
Super Bowl Future Bets:
These are my picks for how to bet Super Bowl futures in 2019:
Bet to Win the Super Bowl:
- Chicago Bears
- New Orleans Saints
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Los Angeles Chargers
Bet Super Bowl 53 Match-ups:
- Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The NFL Playoffs start tomorrow! Get our premium NFL picks and best bets throughout the Playoffs now.NFL Playoffs start tomorrow! Get our premium NFL picks and best bets throughout the playoffs now.
Our data driven NFL predictions went 167-87-2 (66%) straight up picking winners and 133-105-18 (56%) beating the spread on every game this NFL season.