Top 40 College Football Playoff Contenders for 2026
A top-10 power rating does not guarantee a College Football Playoff berth. Schedule difficulty, conference access and the number of realistic losses all matter. These 40 teams are ranked by how often they reached the playoff in 44,444 complete season simulations.
Tier 1: The Favorites
1. Ohio State — 94.6%
Projected 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play. Power rank No. 1; strength of schedule No. 5 (78.1). Conference-title probability: 44.6%.
2. Notre Dame — 91.6%
Projected 11-1 overall and 0-0 in conference play. Power rank No. 5; strength of schedule No. 63 (71.0). Conference-title probability: 0.0%.
3. Oregon — 89.1%
Projected 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play. Power rank No. 2; strength of schedule No. 14 (75.4). Conference-title probability: 31.4%.
4. Georgia — 88.4%
Projected 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play. Power rank No. 4; strength of schedule No. 30 (73.6). Conference-title probability: 57.7%.
5. Indiana — 87.5%
Projected 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play. Power rank No. 3; strength of schedule No. 35 (72.8). Conference-title probability: 22.3%.
6. Texas Tech — 77.7%
Projected 11-1 overall and 8-1 in conference play. Power rank No. 6; strength of schedule No. 85 (69.6). Conference-title probability: 51.1%.
7. Miami (FL) — 51.4%
Projected 9-3 overall and 7-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 12; strength of schedule No. 59 (71.2). Conference-title probability: 38.0%.
8. New Mexico — 43.6%
Projected 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 9; strength of schedule No. 61 (71.1). Conference-title probability: 35.9%.
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Tier 2: Strong At-Large and Champion Paths
9. UNLV — 32.0%
Projected 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 13; strength of schedule No. 40 (72.5). Conference-title probability: 22.4%.
10. Ole Miss — 27.9%
Projected 9-3 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 8; strength of schedule No. 19 (74.8). Conference-title probability: 9.0%.
11. BYU — 27.7%
Projected 9-3 overall and 7-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 16; strength of schedule No. 52 (71.7). Conference-title probability: 15.2%.
12. Texas — 26.2%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 7; strength of schedule No. 1 (79.9). Conference-title probability: 12.8%.
13. Houston — 25.5%
Projected 9-3 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 19; strength of schedule No. 78 (69.9). Conference-title probability: 11.4%.
14. Texas A&M — 20.2%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 11; strength of schedule No. 26 (74.1). Conference-title probability: 5.3%.
15. James Madison — 20.1%
Projected 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 40; strength of schedule No. 117 (66.7). Conference-title probability: 37.8%.
16. SMU — 19.7%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 25; strength of schedule No. 54 (71.5). Conference-title probability: 14.0%.
17. Arizona — 17.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 21; strength of schedule No. 56 (71.3). Conference-title probability: 8.0%.
18. UTSA — 16.9%
Projected 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 31; strength of schedule No. 105 (67.8). Conference-title probability: 27.1%.
Tier 3: The Bubble Starts Here
19. Louisville — 16.4%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 29; strength of schedule No. 65 (71.0). Conference-title probability: 11.6%.
20. Virginia — 16.2%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 28; strength of schedule No. 69 (70.7). Conference-title probability: 9.5%.
21. Hawaii — 15.9%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 26; strength of schedule No. 77 (70.0). Conference-title probability: 12.1%.
22. Oklahoma — 14.8%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 10; strength of schedule No. 2 (78.5). Conference-title probability: 6.2%.
23. Penn State — 13.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 24; strength of schedule No. 44 (72.3). Conference-title probability: 0.5%.
24. Pitt — 12.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 33; strength of schedule No. 83 (69.6). Conference-title probability: 6.9%.
25. Tennessee — 11.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 20; strength of schedule No. 29 (73.6). Conference-title probability: 2.7%.
26. North Dakota State — 10.3%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 27; strength of schedule No. 89 (69.3). Conference-title probability: 9.1%.
27. USF — 9.9%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 50; strength of schedule No. 109 (67.4). Conference-title probability: 9.3%.
28. Western Michigan — 9.6%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 61; strength of schedule No. 120 (66.4). Conference-title probability: 24.2%.
29. Toledo — 9.5%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 69; strength of schedule No. 134 (63.9). Conference-title probability: 23.4%.
30. Air Force — 9.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 30; strength of schedule No. 74 (70.2). Conference-title probability: 8.2%.
Tier 4: Live Longshots
31. Alabama — 8.7%
Projected 7-5 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 15; strength of schedule No. 13 (75.6). Conference-title probability: 2.3%.
32. East Carolina — 8.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 58; strength of schedule No. 118 (66.6). Conference-title probability: 14.3%.
33. Nevada — 8.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 32; strength of schedule No. 84 (69.6). Conference-title probability: 6.8%.
34. LSU — 7.9%
Projected 7-5 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 17; strength of schedule No. 11 (75.6). Conference-title probability: 2.3%.
35. Utah — 7.6%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 37; strength of schedule No. 68 (70.8). Conference-title probability: 3.2%.
36. Kansas State — 7.6%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 38; strength of schedule No. 64 (71.0). Conference-title probability: 3.5%.
37. Eastern Michigan — 7.4%
Projected 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Power rank No. 76; strength of schedule No. 136 (63.6). Conference-title probability: 19.2%.
38. Memphis — 7.0%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 42; strength of schedule No. 94 (68.9). Conference-title probability: 14.7%.
39. San Diego State — 6.8%
Projected 8-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play. Power rank No. 54; strength of schedule No. 95 (68.8). Conference-title probability: 23.0%.
40. Virginia Tech — 6.3%
Projected 7-5 overall and 5-4 in conference play. Power rank No. 39; strength of schedule No. 57 (71.3). Conference-title probability: 4.2%.
Top 40 at a Glance
| # | Team | Conf. | Record | CFP % | Title % | SOS |
| 1 | Ohio State | BIG TEN | 11-1 | 94.6% | 44.6% | 5 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | IND | 11-1 | 91.6% | 0.0% | 63 |
| 3 | Oregon | BIG TEN | 11-1 | 89.1% | 31.4% | 14 |
| 4 | Georgia | SEC | 11-1 | 88.4% | 57.7% | 30 |
| 5 | Indiana | BIG TEN | 11-1 | 87.5% | 22.3% | 35 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | BIG 12 | 11-1 | 77.7% | 51.1% | 85 |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 9-3 | 51.4% | 38.0% | 59 |
| 8 | New Mexico | MWC | 9-3 | 43.6% | 35.9% | 61 |
| 9 | UNLV | MWC | 9-3 | 32.0% | 22.4% | 40 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | SEC | 9-3 | 27.9% | 9.0% | 19 |
| 11 | BYU | BIG 12 | 9-3 | 27.7% | 15.2% | 52 |
| 12 | Texas | SEC | 8-4 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 1 |
| 13 | Houston | BIG 12 | 9-3 | 25.5% | 11.4% | 78 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | SEC | 8-4 | 20.2% | 5.3% | 26 |
| 15 | James Madison | SUNBELT | 9-3 | 20.1% | 37.8% | 117 |
| 16 | SMU | ACC | 8-4 | 19.7% | 14.0% | 54 |
| 17 | Arizona | BIG 12 | 8-4 | 17.0% | 8.0% | 56 |
| 18 | UTSA | AAC | 9-3 | 16.9% | 27.1% | 105 |
| 19 | Louisville | ACC | 8-4 | 16.4% | 11.6% | 65 |
| 20 | Virginia | ACC | 8-4 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 69 |
| 21 | Hawaii | MWC | 8-4 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 77 |
| 22 | Oklahoma | SEC | 8-4 | 14.8% | 6.2% | 2 |
| 23 | Penn State | BIG TEN | 8-4 | 13.0% | 0.5% | 44 |
| 24 | Pitt | ACC | 8-4 | 12.0% | 6.9% | 83 |
| 25 | Tennessee | SEC | 8-4 | 11.0% | 2.7% | 29 |
| 26 | North Dakota State | MWC | 8-4 | 10.3% | 9.1% | 89 |
| 27 | USF | AAC | 8-4 | 9.9% | 9.3% | 109 |
| 28 | Western Michigan | MAC | 8-4 | 9.6% | 24.2% | 120 |
| 29 | Toledo | MAC | 8-4 | 9.5% | 23.4% | 134 |
| 30 | Air Force | MWC | 8-4 | 9.0% | 8.2% | 74 |
| 31 | Alabama | SEC | 7-5 | 8.7% | 2.3% | 13 |
| 32 | East Carolina | AAC | 8-4 | 8.0% | 14.3% | 118 |
| 33 | Nevada | MWC | 8-4 | 8.0% | 6.8% | 84 |
| 34 | LSU | SEC | 7-5 | 7.9% | 2.3% | 11 |
| 35 | Utah | BIG 12 | 8-4 | 7.6% | 3.2% | 68 |
| 36 | Kansas State | BIG 12 | 8-4 | 7.6% | 3.5% | 64 |
| 37 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 8-4 | 7.4% | 19.2% | 136 |
| 38 | Memphis | AAC | 8-4 | 7.0% | 14.7% | 94 |
| 39 | San Diego State | PAC-12 | 8-4 | 6.8% | 23.0% | 95 |
| 40 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 7-5 | 6.3% | 4.2% | 57 |