Data Driven College Football Predictions Week 4 – 2014

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Members get 6 week 4 premium ATS picks here now. Not a member yet? Join us now and get 6 college football and 4 NFL ATS picks for this weekend!

Data Driven College Football Predictions for Week 4:

SportsFormulator’s Data Driven Predictions
TEAM WIN % SCORE VEGAS LINE
THURSDAY
303 Auburn 68% 41 -9
304 Kansas State 32% 24 66u
FRIDAY
305 Connecticut 49% 27 47½u
306 South Florida 51% 28 -2
SATURDAY
313 Iowa 41% 19 47u
314 Pittsburgh 59% 27 -6½
315 Ball State 58% 30 65u
316 Toledo 42% 24 -13
329 Army 42% 23 -2½
330 Wake Forest 58% 30 47u
331 North Carolina 44% 26 65½u
332 East Carolina 56% 30 -2
391 California 37% 24 70½u
392 Arizona 63% 34 -9½
393 Louisiana-Lafayette 31% 23 61½u
394 Boise State 69% 40 -16
401 Maine 33% 13 48½u
402 Boston College 67% 34 -18½
403 Presbyterian 1% 3 55½u
404 North Carolina State 99% 49 -37½

Get all 57 data driven week 4 college football predictions here.

We have 6 premium ATS picks for members this week including:

Indiana at Missouri

Maryland at Syracuse

Central Michigan at Kansas

Utah at Michigan

San Jose State at Minnesota

Florida Atlantic at Wyoming

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Predicting the College Football Playoff (Week 4 – 2014)

We’re three weeks in and the college playoff picture is still murky but we try to predict what the committee will do.  Then tell you how it’ll play out in crowing our first college football playoff champion.

The committee is picking four teams from the power 5 conferences.  While BYU and Notre Dame have had their moments, we don’t see either making it unscathed through the regular season.  So we’ve got to analyze how the power five conferences will finish and go with what the committee will look for in choosing the college football final four.

The ACC looks like it’ll be decided this weekend with Clemson at Florida State.  The Seminoles should win here and cruise through the rest of the regular season.  They’ll get challenged a couple of times but we forecast an undefeated regular season and ACC Championship for Florida State.  The defending national champs are in the first ever college football playoff.

The Big Ten has yet to get a marque win and has some very bad losses.  The league has looked weak outside of Michigan State.  The Spartans had a solid performance but faded toward the end against Oregon.  Otherwise this league has struggled and will need Wisconsin to run the table and set-up a Big Ten Championship Game against a 1 loss Michigan State team to have any chance.  As of now, the Big Ten is gonna be left out of the college football playoff.

The Big XII has two strong contenders for the playoff who will meet and probably determine their representative for the playoff.  Baylor is #1 and Oklahoma #5 in our power rankings this week.  These two collide in Norman which should be one of the biggest games of the 2014 season.  We project the Sooners to win and be chosen for the college football playoff.

The Pac-12 won the biggest game of the first three weeks of the season as Oregon handed Michigan State a loss.  They’ve won some other key match-ups against power 5 teams and look good for sending their champion to the playoff.  The Ducks are #4 in our power rankings this week and look to be the team to beat in the conference.  A lot depends on Brett Hundley’s injury.  If he can return to 100%, UCLA is a contender.  USC losing at Boston College this week hurt the conference and the Trojans’ chances significantly of making the playoff should they win the Pac-12.  With teams in our top 30 power rankings, the Pac-12 champ will make the playoff.

The SEC hasn’t had a lot of big non-conference matches early this season to show their muscle but they do lie ahead.  The league is showing strength early as it has 11 (of 14) teams in our top 30.  We still project Alabama to win the SEC but the league is looking like it could beat each other up with so many tough teams.  Making it through the eight game gauntlet of the SEC undefeated this season will be difficult.  The only way the SEC has a shot of being left out of the playoff is if their champ has two losses.  The Tide will roll to the playoff.

College Football Final Four

So we’ve sorted out the contender and project Florida State from the ACC, Oklahoma from the Big XII, Oregon from the Pac-12 and Alabama from the SEC.  Now seeding them will be difficult.  It’ll come down to final record and then strength of schedule.  Florida State we project has having the least difficult path the rest of the season so we project them as the top seed.  Alabama as champions of the SEC will grab the second seed.  Oklahoma will get the third seed and Oregon the fourth as they project to have the greatest chance of losing a regular season game.

In forecasting these games, the formula projects a tight affair between the top seed Florida State and fourth seeded Oregon.  We predict Florida State will advance to the title game to defend their national championship.

In the other semifinal, we are now predicting Oklahoma to beat Alabama in a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl.  This would be two straight for Bob Stoops’ team over the Tide.

In the College Football Playoff Championship, we have the ‘Noles edging the Sooners by 1.  It sets up as a great matchup.  Let’s hope the committee chooses the four best teams and gets the playoff off to a great start.

College Football Power Rankings – Week 4 (2014)

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Using our proprietary formula, we have ranked all 128 FBS college football teams for week 4 of the 2014 season.

RANK TEAM
1 - Baylor
2 - Auburn
3 - Florida St
4 - Oregon
5 - Oklahoma
6 - Alabama
7 - LSU
8 - Michigan St
9 - Ohio St
10 - Ole Miss
11 - Georgia
12 - Texas A&M
13 - Mississippi St
14 - Stanford
15 - Florida
16 - USC
17 - Oklahoma St
18 - Missouri
19 - BYU
20 - UCLA
21 - South Carolina
22 - Wisconsin
23 - Arizona St
24 - TCU
25 - Duke
26 - Notre Dame
27 - Arizona
28 - Kansas St
29 - Louisville
30 - Arkansas
31 - Syracuse
32 - Washington
33 - Pitt
34 - Clemson
35 - Kentucky
36 - Tennessee
37 - Nebraska
38 - Virginia Tech
39 - Texas
40 - Oregon St
41 - West Virginia
42 - Northern Illinois
43 - Boston College
44 - Penn St
45 - Utah
46 - Marshall
47 - East Carolina
48 - Virginia
49 - Louisiana Tech
50 - Memphis
51 - Iowa
52 - Navy
53 - California
54 - North Carolina
55 - Boise St
56 - Cincinnati
57 - Iowa St
58 - Miami (FL)
59 - Michigan
60 - NC State
61 - Maryland
62 - UAB
63 - Wyoming
64 - Temple
65 - Minnesota
66 - Georgia Tech
67 - Houston
68 - UCF
69 - Nevada
70 - UT-San Antonio
71 - Western Kentucky
72 - Colorado St
73 - Rutgers
74 - Ball St
75 - San Diego St
76 - Middle Tennessee
77 - Northwestern
78 - Texas Tech
79 - Indiana
80 - Washington St
81 - LA-Monroe
82 - Illinois
83 - Air Force
84 - UTEP
85 - Central Michigan
86 - North Texas
87 - Utah St
88 - San Jose St
89 - Colorado
90 - Georgia Southern
91 - Akron
92 - Hawaii
93 - South Alabama
94 - Texas St
95 - Arkansas St
96 - Rice
97 - Western Michigan
98 - Wake Forest
99 - Bowling Green
100 - Tulane
101 - Purdue
102 - Louisiana
103 - Kansas
104 - Toledo
105 - Army
106 - Buffalo
107 - Florida Atlantic
108 - Connecticut
109 - Old Dominion
110 - Idaho
111 - UNLV
112 - Ohio
113 - South Florida
114 - Vanderbilt
115 - Troy
116 - New Mexico St
117 - Massachusetts
118 - New Mexico
119 - Miami (OH)
120 - SMU
121 - Appalachian St
122 - Georgia St
123 - Fresno St
124 - Florida International
125 - Southern Miss
126 - Tulsa
127 - Kent St
128 - Eastern Michigan

Our data driven college football predictions go up every Wednesday afternoon throughout the season.

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Data Driven College Football Predictions Week 3 – 2014

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Members get week 3 premium picks here now. Not a member yet? Join us now and get 6 college football and 4 NFL ATS picks for this weekend!

Data Driven College Football Predictions for Week 3:

SportsFormulator’s Data Driven Predictions
TEAM WIN % SCORE VEGAS LINE
THURSDAY
103 Louisiana Tech 42% 21 47
104 North Texas 58% 27 -3
105 Houston 21% 13 58
106 BYU 79% 40 -17.5
FRIDAY
107 Toledo 36% 24 59
108 Cincinnati 64% 34 -11
109 Baylor 90% 49 -34.5
110 Buffalo 10% 10 67.5
SATURDAY
111 Indiana 61% 35 -7.5
112 Bowling Green 39% 27 69
113 Ohio 34% 24 57
114 Marshall 66% 37 -20.5
115 Central Florida 38% 23 54.5
116 Missouri 62% 31 -10
117 North Carolina State 42% 21 -1.5
118 South Florida 58% 27 51
119 Miami (OH) 29% 14 54
120 Michigan 71% 35 -31
121 Kent State 22% 17 50.5
122 Ohio State 78% 42 -32

Get all 57 data driven week 3 college football predictions here.

College Football Power Rankings – Week 3 (2014)

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Using our proprietary formula, we have ranked all 128 FBS college football teams for week 3 of the 2014 season.

RANK TEAM
1 - Oregon
2 - Baylor
3 - Auburn
4 - Florida St
5 - Alabama
6 - Oklahoma
7 - USC
8 - Georgia
9 - Florida
10 - Texas A&M
11 - Michigan St
12 - LSU
13 - BYU
14 - Ole Miss
15 - Stanford
16 - UCLA
17 - Notre Dame
18 - Mississippi St
19 - Arizona
20 - Virginia Tech
21 - Wisconsin
22 - Louisville
23 - Arizona St
24 - Kansas St
25 - Oklahoma St
26 - Missouri
27 - South Carolina
28 - Ohio St
29 - Clemson
30 - Tennessee
31 - Iowa
32 - TCU
33 - Pitt
34 - Northern Illinois
35 - Oregon St
36 - Penn St
37 - Duke
38 - West Virginia
39 - UCF
40 - Utah
41 - Minnesota
42 - UT-San Antonio
43 - Texas
44 - Washington
45 - Memphis
46 - North Carolina
47 - Arkansas
48 - Kentucky
49 - California
50 - Georgia Tech
51 - Texas Tech
52 - Virginia
53 - Maryland
54 - Michigan
55 - Navy
56 - Boise St
57 - UAB
58 - North Texas
59 - Nebraska
60 - Temple
61 - Marshall
62 - Syracuse
63 - Cincinnati
64 - Illinois
65 - Nevada
66 - Western Kentucky
67 - Miami (FL)
68 - Iowa St
69 - Indiana
70 - Boston College
71 - East Carolina
72 - Colorado St
73 - Rutgers
74 - San Diego St
75 - Ball St
76 - Louisiana Tech
77 - Northwestern
78 - South Alabama
79 - Middle Tennessee
80 - LA-Monroe
81 - Washington St
82 - Wyoming
83 - Kansas
84 - Houston
85 - Arkansas St
86 - Texas St
87 - South Florida
88 - Air Force
89 - Wake Forest
90 - Central Michigan
91 - San Jose St
92 - Colorado
93 - Akron
94 - Hawaii
95 - Toledo
96 - NC State
97 - UTEP
98 - Idaho
99 - Utah St
100 - Ohio
101 - Tulane
102 - Georgia Southern
103 - Rice
104 - Army
105 - Connecticut
106 - Buffalo
107 - Fresno St
108 - Tulsa
109 - Bowling Green
110 - New Mexico St
111 - Louisiana
112 - Kent St
113 - Old Dominion
114 - Purdue
115 - Western Michigan
116 - Vanderbilt
117 - UNLV
118 - Troy
119 - Miami (OH)
120 - New Mexico
121 - Massachusetts
122 - SMU
123 - Appalachian St
124 - Georgia St
125 - Florida International
126 - Florida Atlantic
127 - Southern Miss
128 - Eastern Michigan

Our data driven college football predictions go up every Wednesday afternoon throughout the season.

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Data Driven College Football Predictions Week 2 – 2014

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10-5 (67%) Against the Spread to Start the Year!  We’ve got 11 more ATS picks this weekend.  Join us now and WIN!

Week 1 is in the books!  We had a great start to the 2014 college football season as we won of 15 premium ATS picks for week 1.  Members get week 2 premium picks here now.

Week 2 of the season has an intriguing Thursday night match-up as Arizona travels to UT-San Antonio.  UTSA had a surprising week 1 upset of Houston as they dominated the Cougars on the road.  Can they pull off another upset this week?

In the marquee games of the week, USC goes to Stanford, Notre Dame hosts Michigan, BYU takes on Texas and Virginia Tech plays Ohio State.  We’ve got our data driven predictions for all of these games. Check them out below.

Data Driven College Football Predictions for Week 2:

SportsFormulator’s Data Driven Predictions
TEAM WIN % SCORE VEGAS LINE
THURSDAY
301 Arizona 61% 31 -7
302 Texas-San Antonio 39% 23 56
FRIDAY
303 Pittsburgh 56% 27 -4
304 Boston College 44% 20 49
SATURDAY
309 Kansas State 65% 31 -12
310 Iowa State 35% 17 56 1/2
311 SMU 43% 23 50 1/2
312 North Texas 57% 28 -3
313 Ball State 26% 13 53 1/2
314 Iowa 74% 38 -17 1/2
315 Northern Illinois 53% 37 58
316 Northwestern 47% 35 -7
331 New Mexico State 52% 30 63
332 Georgia State 48% 28 PK
377 Virginia Tech 33% 13 47
378 Ohio State 67% 27 -11
419 Richmond 38% 17
420 Virginia 62% 31 -14
421 Missouri State 1% 14
422 Oklahoma State 99% 48 -32

Check out our data driven college football predictions for all 74 week 2 games here.


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College Football Power Rankings – Week 2 (2014)

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Using our proprietary formula, we have ranked all 128 FBS college football teams for week 2 of the 2014 season.

RANK TEAM
1 - Oregon
2 - Auburn
3 - Florida St
4 - Alabama
5 - Baylor
6 - Georgia
7 - Michigan St
8 - USC
9 - UCLA
10 - Oklahoma
11 - LSU
12 - Stanford
13 - Texas A&M
14 - Ohio St
15 - Texas
16 - Mississippi St
17 - Wisconsin
18 - Arizona
19 - Ole Miss
20 - Florida
21 - Kansas St
22 - South Carolina
23 - Iowa
24 - Oklahoma St
25 - Nebraska
26 - Louisville
27 - BYU
28 - Clemson
29 - Michigan
30 - Notre Dame
31 - Tennessee
32 - Arizona St
33 - TCU
34 - Oregon St
35 - Washington
36 - North Carolina
37 - Virginia Tech
38 - Duke
39 - Missouri
40 - Pitt
41 - Temple
42 - UCF
43 - West Virginia
44 - Northern Illinois
45 - Minnesota
46 - Texas Tech
47 - Arkansas
48 - Kentucky
49 - Penn St
50 - UT-San Antonio
51 - Virginia
52 - California
53 - Maryland
54 - Colorado St
55 - Western Kentucky
56 - Boston College
57 - Marshall
58 - Memphis
59 - Miami (FL)
60 - Syracuse
61 - Cincinnati
62 - Rutgers
63 - Indiana
64 - Northwestern
65 - Georgia Tech
66 - UAB
67 - Utah
68 - Washington St
69 - Kansas
70 - Louisiana
71 - Boise St
72 - LA-Monroe
73 - Houston
74 - Illinois
75 - Iowa St
76 - Toledo
77 - Middle Tennessee
78 - Navy
79 - Nevada
80 - Wake Forest
81 - East Carolina
82 - San Jose St
83 - Wyoming
84 - Arkansas St
85 - Colorado
86 - San Diego St
87 - South Alabama
88 - Texas St
89 - Akron
90 - Fresno St
91 - Air Force
92 - Purdue
93 - South Florida
94 - Tulane
95 - Tulsa
96 - Ball St
97 - NC State
98 - North Texas
99 - Utah St
100 - Hawaii
101 - Buffalo
102 - Connecticut
103 - Idaho
104 - Ohio
105 - SMU
106 - Bowling Green
107 - Rice
108 - UTEP
109 - Vanderbilt
110 - Kent St
111 - New Mexico
112 - Louisiana Tech
113 - Army
114 - Georgia Southern
115 - New Mexico St
116 - UNLV
117 - Central Michigan
118 - Old Dominion
119 - Western Michigan
120 - Miami (OH)
121 - Troy
122 - Eastern Michigan
123 - Georgia St
124 - Florida International
125 - Florida Atlantic
126 - Massachusetts
127 - Southern Miss
128 - Appalachian St

Our data driven college football predictions go up every Wednesday afternoon throughout the season.

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Data Driven College Football Predictions Week 1 – 2014

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3-1 Against the Spread to Start the Year!  We’ve got 11 more ATS picks this weekend.  Join us now and WIN!

Football is finally here!  College Football kicks off tonight and we’ve run the formula to predict every game.  We’ve got predicted scores for you this weekend and 15 premium ATS picks!  You’ll get winning information from SportsFormulator all season long.

SportsFormulator’s Data Driven Predictions
TEAM WIN % SCORE VEGAS LINE
WEDNESDAY
301 Abilene Christian 56% 28 60 1/2
302 Georgia State 44% 24 -4
THURSDAY
133 Texas A&M 26% 21 60
134 South Carolina 74% 42 -10 1/2
143 Rutgers 42% 31 62.5
144 Washington State 58% 37 -8
FRIDAY
147 Bowling Green State 57% 28 -7.5
148 Western Kentucky 43% 23 61
153 UNLV 36% 24 60
154 Arizona 64% 38 -24
SATURDAY
159 UCLA 75% 40 -21
160 Virginia 25% 17 57.5
161 Appalachian State 21% 7 54
162 Michigan 79% 52 -34.5
171 Boston College 67% 31 -17
172 Massachusetts 33% 17 48
187 Western Michigan 34% 17 53 1/2
188 Purdue 66% 30 -10
201 UTEP 38% 28 66.5
202 New Mexico 62% 38 -7 1/2

Check out our data driven college football predictions for 75 more week 1 games here.


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$249
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Get our data driven predictions for all 85 college football game on the board in week 1 here.

College Football Playoff Final 4 Predictions

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by Matt Fischer

Tonight the first ever college football season, at least for FBS, begins and will lead to a four team playoff to crown a champion in January 2015. Using our data driven predictions, we’ve predicted the records for the 2014 season and now I’m going to predict what the selection committee will do when selecting this college football final four.

The committee seems to value strength of schedule and non-conference strength of schedule above all else. I think they’ll also put a premium on undefeated conference champions. I think it’s going to be very difficult for a team to make the final four not winning a conference championship unless a few conference winners have multiple losses. With that said, here’s are the four teams I think the committee picks for the college football playoff.

The top seed will be Alabama. We project the Crimson Tide to go undefeated and win the SEC Championship. The SEC should once again be a great league.  The Tide running the table will carry a lot of weight with the committee as it could include wins over several ranked teams.  The SEC Champ will have the pole position for the first ever college football playoff.

The second seed will be the defending champs, Florida State. The Seminoles we predict to cruise through the season to another perfect record. They shouldn’t meet much resistance this season but do have a tricky game at Louisville and the Florida Gators could challenge them at the end of the year.

The third seed will be the Oregon Ducks.  We project the Ducks to win the Pac-12 but finish with a blemish on the record.  The strength of the Pac-12 will carry them here along with a victory over our predicted Big Ten Champion, Michigan State, in their second game of the season.

The final team to make the inaugural college football playoff will be the Oklahoma Sooners.  OU we predict will go undefeated through the Big XII.  The lack of a marqee non-conference win (barring a surprising season from Louisiana Tech, Tulsa or Tennessee) and not having a conference championship hurts Bob Stoops’ team.  They’re gonna make the playoff and that’s really all that matters.

The committee sets up a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl upset as Oklahoma and Alabama will face-off again this postseason.  Then the Ducks and ‘Noles will collide in the other semifinal.

Alabama will have revenge on its mind and have plenty of motivation after last year’s loss to OU.  Their supreme talent at the skill positions will win out and get them to advance to the college football playoff championship game.

I’d love to see Florida State and Oregon meet in the playoff.  This would be a fun match-up with all the speed on the field.  I think the Ducks pull the upset.  I think their tempo can wear down the Noles and Marcus Mariota will shine in what could be a match-up of Heisman winning QB’s.

The championship game of the college football playoff will feature the third seed Oregon against the top seed Alabama at Cowboys Stadium.  Oregon has a good shot at winning this game since Nick Saban won’t have over a month to prepare for their uptempo style.  When given the typical lead up to a bowl game, Saban is nearly unbeatable.  In looking at data this offseason, there’s a lot to like about Oregon.  I think they pull the upset and win the college football playoff and take home the national championship.

 

2014 College Football Power Rankings – Week 1

The 2014 college football season is here.  We’ve run our formula and here is how all 128 FBS teams stack up to one another heading into the season.  Check back here weekly and get power rankings for free!

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1 - Florida St
2 - Alabama
3 - Auburn
4 - Oregon
5 - South Carolina
6 - UCLA
7 - Michigan St
8 - Oklahoma
9 - LSU
10 - Georgia
11 - Ohio St
12 - Stanford
13 - Baylor
14 - USC
15 - Wisconsin
16 - Texas
17 - Florida
18 - Iowa
19 - Clemson
20 - Washington
21 - Ole Miss
22 - Kansas St
23 - Mississippi St
24 - TCU
25 - Arizona St
26 - UCF
27 - Missouri
28 - Louisville
29 - Texas Tech
30 - North Carolina
31 - Arizona
32 - Oklahoma St
33 - Texas A&M
34 - Oregon St
35 - Michigan
36 - BYU
37 - Houston
38 - Miami (FL)
39 - Arkansas
40 - Notre Dame
41 - Northwestern
42 - Duke
43 - Nebraska
44 - Tennessee
45 - Minnesota
46 - Virginia Tech
47 - Penn St
48 - Georgia Tech
49 - Pitt
50 - Syracuse
51 - Kentucky
52 - Washington St
53 - Boise St
54 - Cincinnati
55 - Iowa St
56 - California
57 - Indiana
58 - Virginia
59 - Vanderbilt
60 - West Virginia
61 - Fresno St
62 - Utah St
63 - Marshall
64 - Wake Forest
65 - Utah
66 - Kansas
67 - Maryland
68 - Illinois
69 - Colorado
70 - Boston College
71 - Memphis
72 - Bowling Green
73 - Colorado St
74 - Northern Illinois
75 - Rutgers
76 - Nevada
77 - South Florida
78 - Navy
79 - UT-San Antonio
80 - NC State
81 - Purdue
82 - San Jose St
83 - SMU
84 - Middle Tennessee
85 - Temple
86 - Rice
87 - Tulane
88 - UNLV
89 - Connecticut
90 - Louisiana
91 - Toledo
92 - Wyoming
93 - East Carolina
94 - South Alabama
95 - LA-Monroe
96 - Arkansas St
97 - North Texas
98 - Troy
99 - Ball St
100 - San Diego St
101 - Texas St
102 - Western Kentucky
103 - Tulsa
104 - Air Force
105 - New Mexico
106 - Buffalo
107 - Idaho
108 - Kent St
109 - Akron
110 - Florida Atlantic
111 - Ohio
112 - UAB
113 - Central Michigan
114 - Army
115 - Old Dominion
116 - Miami (OH)
117 - Louisiana Tech
118 - UTEP
119 - Hawaii
120 - Southern Miss
121 - Eastern Michigan
122 - Western Michigan
123 - New Mexico St
124 - Georgia Southern
125 - Massachusetts
126 - Florida International
127 - Appalachian St
128 - Georgia St