2018 NFL Mock Draft – April 26, 2018

Tonight is the night! The first round of the 2018 NFL Draft will be live on ESPN. I think this draft will see a flurry of trades with five QB’s being first round talents so these picks should be jumbled as the draft happens.

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I’m not going to put trades in this first round NFL Mock Draft but here are moves I could see happening:

  • Cleveland Browns – trade down from #4.  They could stock pile more picks for a team that needs a lot of players.
  • Denver Broncos – trade down from #5.  If QB’s go in the top 3 picks, teams will be rushing up to get in this spot to take a QB.
  • Arizona Cardinals – trade up from 15 to get a QB.
  • Seattle Seahawks – trade down from 18 just to acquire picks.  The Seahawks won’t be too much in the first few rounds of the draft but a trade down could change that.

Pick #2 is the key to this draft.  If the Giants go with a QB, the trades will become fast and furious with teams trying to get up to 4.  We know the Browns and Jets will take QB’s so pick 4 becomes the most valuable pick in the draft.

NFL Mock Draft:

  1. Cleveland Browns – Sam Darnold (QB – USC)
  2. New York Giants – Saquan Barkley (RB – Penn State)
  3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) – Baker Mayfield (QB – Oklahoma)
  4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans) – Bradley Chubb (DE – NC State)
  5. Denver Broncos – Denzel Ward (CB – Ohio State)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets) – Quenton Nelson (OG – Notre Dame)
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derwin James (FS – Florida State)
  8. Chicago Bears – Roquan Smith (LB – Georgia)
  9. San Francisco 49ers – Minkah Fitzpatrick (FS – Alabama)
  10. Oakland Raiders – Mike McGlinchey (OT – Notre Dame)
  11. Miami Dolphins – Tremaine Edmunds (LB – Virginia Tech)
  12. Buffalo Bills (from Cincinnati Bengals) – Josh Allen (QB – Wyoming)
  13. Washington Redskins – Vita Vea (DT – Washington)
  14. Green Bay Packers – Jaire Alexander (CB – Louisville)
  15. Arizona Cardinals – Josh Rosen (QB – UCLA)
  16. Baltimore Ravens – Calvin Ridley (WR – Alabama)
  17. Los Angeles Chargers – Da’Ron Payne (DT – Alabama)
  18. Seattle Seahawks – Marcus Davenport (DE – UTSA)
  19. Dallas Cowboys – Rashaan Evans (LB – Alabama)
  20. Detroit Lions – Harold Landry (DE – Boston College)
  21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo Bills) – Frank Ragnow (C – Arkansas)
  22. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City Chiefs) – D.J. Moore (WR – Maryland)
  23. New England Patriots (from Los Angeles Rams) – Kolton Miller (OT – UCLA)
  24. Carolina Panthers – Josh Jackson (CB – Iowa)
  25. Tennessee Titans – Leighton Vander Esch (LB – Boise State)
  26. Atlanta Falcons – Maurice Hurst (DT – Michigan)
  27. New Orleans Saints – Courtland Sutton (WR – SMU)
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers – Derrius Guice (RB – LSU)
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars – Lamar Jackson (QB – Louisville)
  30. Minnesota Vikings – Isaiah Wynn (OT – Georgia)
  31. New England Patriots – Justin Reid (FS – Stanford)
  32. Philadelphia Eagles – Mike Gesicki (TE – Penn State)

NFL Week 1 Point Spread Predictions 2018


The 2018 NFL schedule is out!  With us knowing the 16 week 1 match-ups, we look ahead to betting these games at the start of the 2018 NFL regular season.  Here are my predicted point spreads for NFL week 1 in 2018.

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Thursday, September 6, 2018

Falcons at Eagles (-3) – This is a rematch of the divisional round of the playoffs where the Eagles made a goalline stand to stop the Falcons 15-10 and advance on their way to a Super Bowl Championship.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Bills at Ravens (-3) – The Bills are breaking in a QB…which could come from the draft next week.  The Ravens got off to a slow start last year but rallied late.

Jaguars (-3.5) at Giants – Will OBJ be back with the Giants?  The Jags defense should frustrate the Giants out of the gate.  Will the Giants D be able to keep them in it?

Bucs at Saints (-6) – The Saints are always tough at home.  Being divisional foes, both teams are familiar with one another.  Can James Winston match Drew Brees in the Dome?

Texans at Patriots (-6) – The Patriots are a story in the offseason because of tension between the staff and Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.  Both are expected to be there week 1 and we all know the Patriots are going to be favorites at home against anyone.

49ers at Vikings (-4.5) – Jimmy G vs. Kirk C.  Both have high expectations coming in to 2018.  The Vikings were in the AFC Championship while Garrapolo seemed to turnaround the 49ers single handedly after his midseason trade.

Titans (-1) at Dolphins – The Titans won a playoff game last year but still changed head coaches.  Is Mike Vrabel going to improve a team that didn’t make any big roster moves? The ‘Phins roster doesn’t look as good this year as it did last year.

Bengals at Colts (-3) – This is based upon Andrew Luck being the starter for Indy.  If not, the Colts will be underdogs.

Steelers at Browns – Oddsmakers know they’ve got to give the Browns at least a TD here or the action will be totally lopsided.  Who will be under center for the Browns to start 2018?

Chiefs at Chargers – One of the biggest games of the week.  The Chargers think they’re a playoff team.  KC was last year but changed QB’s.  Patrick Mahomes is now the man in KC.  Can he open the season with a road win against Phillip Rivers in LA?

Seahawks at Broncos (-1) – Case Keenum is the new signal caller in Denver and will face-off against Russell Wilson.  Both defenses are retooled.  This is a game that’s going to go to the wire.

Cowboys at Panthers (-5) – Will the Cowboys bounce back from a disappointing season?  The Panthers are ready to try to make a playoff run.

Redskins at Cardinals (-3) – Alex Smith is now Washington’s QB.  He provides a steady hand for an offense that needs to make some plays down the field.  Sam Bradford is the expected start for the Cardinals.  This game has the feeling it’ll go down to the wire with a QB making his debut having a chance to win or lose in the final minute.

Bears at Packers (-6.5) – A Sunday night showdown amongst old foes.  The Packers made some moves that have seemed to frustrate Aaron Rodgers.  The Bears welcome Matt Nagy to the helm.  Can he get the offense going with Trubisky at QB?

Monday, September 10, 2018

Jets at Lions (-4) – Matt Patricia debuts as the new head coach in Detroit.  He knows who his QB will be.  We don’t know who will be under center for the Jets and probably won’t know for sure until training camp.

Rams (-3) at Raiders – You knew ESPN was going to get Gruden on Monday Night Football for his first game back coaching after leaving the MNF booth.  The Rams made big waves in the offseason and have stockpiled talent on a roster that made the playoffs last year.

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2018 NFL Mock Draft – March 10, 2018

There’s been a flurry of player movement ahead of league’s new year beginning March 14, 2018. With the combine over, it’s time to focus in on the 2018 NFL Draft.

Here’s what each team should do in round 1 in my 2018 NFL Mock Draft:

1 – Cleveland Browns

The Browns have two picks in the top 4 and it couldn’t come at a better time since they’re 1-31 in the past two seasons. They need to draft someone who can come in and help them win now. If I’m the Browns, I take the best player available.

The Browns should pick Bradley Chubb (DE – NC State). Imagine Chubb on one side and Myles Garrett on the other.

2 – New York Giants

The Giants are bringing Eli Manning back so taking a QB at #2 doesn’t make much sense. They should get him help in the backfield.

The Giants should draft Saquon Barkley (RB- Penn State)

3 – Indianapolis Colts

The Colts should have Andrew Luck back at the start of the season. He needs help. There aren’t any playmakers worth of the third pick so if I’m Indy, I trade down to a team wanting to jump up and snag a QB.

If Indy keeps the pick, they should pick Quenton Nelson (OG – Notre Dame).

4 – Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)

With the Browns having traded for Tyrod Taylor, QB is not an immediate need. This would be a great spot for them to pull off a trade to add more assets. Perhaps another trade with the Bills? If not, they could bolster the O-line.

If they keep the pick, the Browns should pick Mike McGlinchy (OT – Notre Dame)

5 – Denver Broncos

It’s hard to predict this pick. I’ve got to think John Elway would rather have a more proven QB to start the season than drafting someone here but if he strikes out on the free agent market, QB is a must here.

The Broncos should draft Josh Allen (QB – Wyoming)

6 – New York Jets

If Kirk Cousins signs with the Jets, this opens this pick up to a few different possibilities. If he doesn’t, the Jets will go QB. Let’s say for this mock draft Cousins signs with the Vikings instead of the Jets.

The Jets should take Josh Rosen (QB – UCLA)

7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are a team that needs a playmaker. They’re in a tough division and have to hit on this pick to be in the playoff chase in 2018. I think they go with a defensive playmaker to counter the stellar QB’s in the NFC South.

The Bucs should draft Minkah Fitzpatrick (FS – Alabama)

8 – Chicago Bears

Another potential trade spot. With top QB prospects still available here, I expect the Bears to get at least a few offers. I think they look to strengthen the defense considering they have six games a year against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and whichever QB the Vikings decide on.

The Bears should pick Derwin James (SS – Florida State)

9 – San Francisco 49ers

Rumors have the Niners have been trying to acquire DB’s via trade this offseason. There will be potential for them to draft one at 9.

The 49ers should draft Denzel Ward (CB – Ohio State)

10 – Oakland Raiders

Jon Gruden is back at the helm for the Raiders. Being an offensive guy, will he look at that side of the ball? The Raiders are a player away from being a playoff team.

The Raiders should pick Da’Ron Payne (DT – Alabama) 

11 – Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins seem ready to move on from Ryan Tannehill. QB is a need for a team in rebuild mode. One player stands out as a guy who can instantly become a leader as a rookie.

The Dolphins should draft Baker Mayfield (QB – Oklahoma)

12 – Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals need to bolster their line. It used to be one of the league’s best but fell off last season after they lost a couple of starters.

The Bengals should pick Connor Williams (OT – Texas)

13 – Washington Redskins

The Redskins let Kirk Cousins go and traded for Alex Smith so QB is settled. The ‘Skins could use help on defense.

The Redskins should draft Roquan Smith (LB – Georgia)

14 – Green Bay Packers

After seeing Aaron Rodgers injured last season, I think the Packers should focus on the offensive line. One guy stood out at the combine.

The Packers should draft Will Hernandez (OG – UTEP)

15 – Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals will be giddy if the draft works out the way I’ve predicted. They’d have a top QB prospect fall in their lap. They rush the card to the commissioner.

The Cardinals should pick Sam Darnold (QB – USC)

16 – Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens fell out of a playoff spot the last week of the season so they’re right on the brink of being contenders. I think they look for the best player on the board here in the middle of the first round.

The Ravens should draft Calvin Ridley (WR – Alabama)

17 – Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a formidable pass rush and know the window for Phillip Rivers is closing. I think they’ll look to collapse the pocket in the QB’s face so they’ll look for someone in the middle of the defense.

The Chargers should pick Vita Vea (DT –Washington)

18 – Seattle Seahawks

Big changes in Seattle. Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett and Jimmy Graham are all gone. Will they look to go with a d-lineman or secondary help? I think they’ll look to replenish the pass rush.

The Seahawks should draft Sam Hubbard (DE – Ohio State)

19 – Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys should look to get the best player available.

The Cowboys should pick Tremaine Edmunds (LB – Virginia Tech)

20 – Detroit Lions

The Lions’ new HC is defensive minded Matt Patricia. I think he’ll look to find a pass rusher.

The Lions should draft Marcus Davenport (DE – UTSA)

21 – Buffalo Bills

With back-to-back picks, the Bills could look to move up and grab the QB at the top of their board. If they stick around here, there still could be a QB they want, offensive line or pass rush.

The Bills should draft James Daniels (OC – Iowa)

22 – Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City Chiefs)

Having gone to the offensive side with the previous pick, the Bills look at the other side of the ball.

The Bills should draft Rashaan Evans (LB – Alabama)

23 – Los Angeles Rams

The Rams seem to be going all in on the 2018 season as they’ve been one of the most active teams this offseason. They’ve bolstered the secondary by acquiring Marcus Peters from the Chiefs and Aqib Talib from the Broncos. They traded Robert Quinn away so looking for a pass rusher makes sense here.

The Rams should pick Harold Landry (LB – Boston College)

24 – Carolina Panthers

The Panthers need another target for Cam Newton. Some great WR’s are available here.

The Panthers should draft Courtland Sutton (WR – SMU)

25 – Tennessee Titans

Mike Vrabel is the new HC in Tennessee. He takes over a team that won a playoff game last season. The team could use an offensive playmaker.

The Titans should draft Christian Kirk (WR – Texas A&M)

26 – Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are still contenders in the NFC. They won on the road in the playoffs and took the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles to the wire. The defensive line could use a boost.

The Falcons should pick Maurice Hurst (DT – Michigan)

27 – New Orleans Saints

The Saints are amongst the NFC elite. They know one player could put them over the top. They look to be going after Jimmy Graham in free agency so defense could be the focus of their first pick.

The Saints should pick Josh Jackson (CB – Iowa)

28 – Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ryan Shazier injury means they need to find a new playmaker at linebacker.

The Steelers should draft Leighton Vander Esch (LB – Boise State)

29 – Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars were the surprise of 2017 as they were a quarter away from the Super Bowl. The defense is set but the offense could use a playmaker. I think they should look at trading up for Christian Kirk. His ability to make plays in the passing game as well as return kicks would be a huge get for them. I don’t see him available at 29 though.

The Jaguars should draft Lamar Jackson (QB – Louisville)

30 – Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are still debating who will be their QB in 2018 but the draft isn’t in consideration. They’ll look to restock the d-line.

The Vikings should pick Taven Bryan (DT – Florida)

31 – New England Patriots

The Pats got lit up by Nick Foles in the Super Bowl. With Malcom Butler apparently on his way out, the Patriots need to address the secondary.

The Patriots should pick Jaire Alexander (CB – Louisville)

32 – Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are Super Bowl Champs. They bring the core back so they’ll look to add depth at key positions. I think Doug Pederson will look at the defensive side of the ball.

The Eagles should pick Donte Jackson (CB – LSU)

Check back for updated NFL Mock Drafts up until the NFL Draft on April 26, 2018.

Super Bowl 52 Prediction

Our Super Bowl 52 prediction is here!  Who will claim the Lombardi Trophy on February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis?  The New England Patriots try for back-to-back Super Bowl titles against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted Super Bowl LII.  After losing their starting quarterback, can the Eagles fly to their first Super Bowl Championship or will Tom Brady claim his sixth title?

The Eagles come in off playoff wins against the Falcons 15-10 and the Vikings 38-7.  The Patriots made it back to the Super Bowl following wins against Titans 35-14 and the Jaguars 24-20.

Our predictive formula has beaten the spread 6 consecutive playoff games!   Who’s our Super Bowl 52 pick?  Check out our Super Bowl 52 prediction below.

If our ATS pick for Super Bowl 52 is not correct, we’ll offer 52 days of premium picks for whatever the final margin of the game is!

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Super Bowl 52 Prediction

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Philadelphia Eagles 38% 21 47.5
New England Patriots 62% 27 -5

Take the Patriots to cover the spread at Super Bowl 52!  Who do you think wins Super Bowl 52?  Make your pick now!

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NFL Predictions – Conference Championships – January 21, 2018

Our data driven NFL predictions gave you all four winners of last weekend’s divisional round!

NFL predictions for 2018 AFC and NFC Championship Games.  In the AFC, the Patriots host the Jaguars.  The NFC has the Vikings visiting the Eagles to try to earn  trip home for Super Bowl 52.

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted both NFL conference championship games on Sunday including Patriots vs. Jaguars and Eagles vs. Vikings.  Who’s going to the Super Bowl?  Find out below.

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NFL Predictions – Conference Championship Games

Sunday, January 21, 2018

Jacksonville Jaguars 43% 21 46.5
New England Patriots 57% 25 -9
Minnesota Vikings 53% 22 -3.5
Philadelphia Eagles 47% 20 38

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NFL Predictions – Divisional Playoffs – January 13-14, 2018

NFL predictions for 2018 Divisional weekend.

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted all four NFL Playoff games for Saturday and Sunday including:

  • Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
  • New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
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NFL Predictions – Divisional Playoffs

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Atlanta Falcons 42% 19 -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 58% 24 41.5
Tennessee Titans 22% 16 47
New England Patriots 78% 30 -13.5

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Jacksonville Jaguars 51% 24 41
Pittsburgh Steelers 49% 23 -7
New Orleans Saints 44% 19 45
Minnesota Vikings 56% 22 -4

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NFL Predictions – Wild Card Playoffs – January 6-7, 2018

NFL predictions for 2018 Wild Card weekend.

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted all four NFL Playoff games for Saturday and Sunday including:

  • Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
  • Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons
  • Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
  • New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
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NFL Predictions – Wild Card Playoffs

Saturday, January 6, 2018

Tennessee Titans 33% 18 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs 67% 27 -8.5
Atlanta Falcons 31% 18 48.5
Los Angeles Rams 69% 28 -5.5

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Buffalo Bills 19% 14 39.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 81% 29 -9
Carolina Panthers 34% 18 48
New Orleans Saints 66% 26 -7

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NFL Power Rankings – 2017 Final

Here are our final 2017 NFL Power Rankings as we head to the playoffs.

Using our predictive formula we rank all 32  teams in our weekly NFL power rankings.  The Patriots are atop of the final rankings for 2017 as we head to the NFL Playoffs.  Access data driven predictions for every NFL Playoff game.

NFL Power Rankings – FINAL

1 New England Patriots
2 Minnesota Vikings
3 Philadelphia Eagles
4 Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Los Angeles Rams
6 New Orleans Saints
7 Jacksonville Jaguars
8 Carolina Panthers
9 Kansas City Chiefs
10 Atlanta Falcons
11 Baltimore Ravens
12 Los Angeles Chargers
13 Detroit Lions
14 Seattle Seahawks
15 Dallas Cowboys
16 Tennessee Titans
17 Buffalo Bills
18 Washington Redskins
19 Cincinnati Bengals
20 Arizona Cardinals
21 Green Bay Packers
22 San Francisco 49ers
23 Tampa Bay Bucs
24 Chicago Bears
25 Oakland Raiders
26 Miami Dolphins
27 New York Jets
28 Denver Broncos
29 Houston Texans
30 Indianapolis Colts
31 New York Giants
32 Cleveland Browns
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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 17 – 2017

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for week 17 of the 2017 season.  We survived last week with the Carolina Panthers.

Week 17 is always tricky because you never know who will play nor how long starters might stay in the game when there’s nothing to play for with most teams.

We want you to survive your eliminator pool this NFL season so we’re giving our free survivor pool strategy all season. Our picks are based upon our data driven NFL predictions and power rankings.

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Survivor Pool Pick Strategy:

There are easy steps to cut down your potential pick for your NFL survivor pool.

Usually at this point in the season, there isn’t much to pick from for a survivor pool.  This week, only four of our 16 predicted winners are eligible including the Chiefs, Colts, Redskins and Steelers.

Eliminate the Teams We’ve Already Picked in 2017

We’re 14-2 this season having taken the Bills (week 1), Raiders (week 2), Packers (week 3), Seahawks (week 4), Eagles (week 5) and Vikings (week 7), Saints (week 8), Rams (week 10), Patriots (week 11), Ravens (week 12), Jaguars (13), Chargers (week 14), Lions (week 15), Panthers (week 16) along with losing picks Falcons (week 6) and Texans (week 9 though we picked before the Watson injury).

Eliminate Toss-Up Winners

First we eliminate toss-up games.  That means we’re cutting the 1 point winners out of the list.  We don’t have any toss-up winners among our four week 17 NFL Survivor candidates.

Eliminate Road Winners

Next we eliminate road teams.  I don’t like taking road teams to win in the NFL at all.  Just too risky when you need a win, go with a home team.

Eliminating predicted road winners, the Redskins and Chiefs are predicted road winners so they’re out of contention for our NFL Survivor Pool Pick for week 17.  Two teams remain.

Eliminate Low Ranking Winners

Next, I look for team that aren’t in our 20 of the power rankings.  This eliminates the Colts.  Only one team is left to consider for our week 17 NFL Survivor Pool Pick.

Eliminate Winners Playing Good Teams

Then, I look for our predicted winners that are playing teams ranked in the top 16 and take them out of consideration.  This keeps the Steelers as our pick.

Final  Survivor Pool Pick Candidates

The Steelers play AFC North divisional foe Cleveland.  Will Pittsburgh be the one win on the Browns schedule this season or will the Steelers finish the regular season with a W?  Take the Steelers to survive NFL Week 17.

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NFL Predictions Week 17 – 2017 (SF Insider)

NFL predictions for week 17.  All games are Sunday.

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted every NFL game on the board in week 17 including Bengals at Ravens, Packers at Lions, Bills at Dolphins, Panthers at Falcons, Saints at Bucs, Jaguars at Titans, Jets at Patriots, Texans at Colts, Browns at Steelers, Redskins at Giants, Bears at Vikings, Cowboys at Eagles, Raiders at Chargers, Cardinals at Seahawks, Chiefs at Broncos and 49ers at Rams.

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NFL Predictions – Week 17

December 31, 2017

Bengals 24% 13 40.5
Ravens 76% 26 -10
Packers 34% 21 43
Lions 66% 29 -7.5
Bills 52% 24 -3
Dolphins 48% 23 43
Panthers 48% 28 46.5
Falcons 52% 29 -4
Saints 69% 30 -7.5
Bucs 31% 20 50.5
Jaguars 69% 28 41
Titans 31% 18 -6
Jets 17% 14 46
Patriots 83% 31 -15.5
Texans 47% 21 41
Colts 53% 23 -4
Browns 9% 14 40
Steelers 91% 34 -13.5
Redskins 60% 24 -3.5
Giants 40% 19 38.5
Bears 24% 14 39.5
Vikings 76% 27 -12
Cowboys 37% 17 -2.5
Eagles 63% 24 43
Raiders 30% 20 44
Chargers 70% 30 -8
Cardinals 31% 20 39.5
Seahawks 69% 29 -8
Chiefs 61% 25 39
Broncos 39% 19 -3.5
49ers 29% 17 45
Rams 71% 28 -4

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