Free NFL Picks – Week 11 2017

Each week I analyze games and pick out our best plays for the NFL week ahead. I go through every game and jot down selections before reviewing them again to finalize our best plays to pass along to SportsFormulator Insiders as our premium ATS picks for the week.

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Free Picks NFL Week 11

There were several games in NFL week 11 I liked. I chose 4 as our premium plays but these below were very close to making the cut:

Each week I analyze games and pick out our best plays for the NFL week ahead. I go through every game and jot down selections before reviewing them again to finalize our best plays to pass along to SportsFormulator Insiders as our premium ATS picks for the week.

There were several games in NFL week 11 I liked. I chose 4 as our premium plays but these below were very close to making the cut:

Cardinals at Texans (Pick ‘Em, 38.5) – Do you trust either of these two QB’s? Both teams have solid defenses that should control the game. This game is going to be filled with field goals and turnovers. This should be very low scoring. 

Jaguars (-7.5, 37) at Browns – Another game with questionable QB play. I’m not sure the Browns can get to double figures in this game and I don’t trust Blake Bortles to light the scoreboard up. This should be an Under.

Bills at Chargers (-4, 43.5) – I was talking to a friend of mine in LA last night and asked him if the Chargers can win or lose by more than a FG any week the rest of the year. They’re a competitive team and seems like they’re always in a spot where the final drive of the game determines the outcome. What will the Bills get out of changing QB’s this week? That’s what kept this from being a play. The Chargers win by a FG so I’d take the Bills and the 4 points.

Titans at Steelers (-7, 44) – The Steelers struggled coming out of their bye week last week but rallied to win by 3 at Indy. I think with the lights on in primetime, the Steelers come to play and the Titans simply can’t keep up. I tend to stay away from Thursday Night Football but would be tempted to take the Steelers and lay 7.

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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 11 – 2017

We want you to survive your eliminator pool this NFL season so we’re giving our free survivor pool strategy all season. Our picks are based upon our data driven NFL predictions and power rankings.

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Survivor Pool Pick Strategy:

There are easy steps to cut down your potential pick for your NFL survivor pool.  This week makes it a little more complicated because we’ve hit a point in the season where we’ve used 10 teams already.

Eliminate the Teams We’ve Already Picked in 2017

We’re 8-2 this season having taken the Bills (week 1), Raiders (week 2),  Packers (week 3), Seahawks (week 4), Eagles (week 5) and Vikings (week 7) along with losing pick Falcons (week 6) and Texans (week 9 though we picked before the Watson injury).  Six of those teams, the Eagles, Packers, Rams, Saints, Seahawks and Texans are predicted to win this week so they’re out our of group of 14 week 11 winners.

Eliminate Toss-Up Winners

First we eliminate toss-up games.  That means we’re cutting the 1 point winners out of the list.  For NFL week 11, we don’t have any toss-up games so we still have 8 teams to consider.

Eliminate Road Winners

Next we eliminate road teams.  I don’t like taking road teams to win in the NFL at all.  Just too risky when you need a win, go with a home team.

Eliminating predicted road winners, the Bengals, Bucs, Chiefs, Jaguars and Lions are out.  This cuts us down to 3 potential survivor pool picks.

Eliminate Low Ranking Winners

Next, I look for team that aren’t in our 20 of the power rankings.  This eliminates the Chargers.  Two teams are left to consider for our week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Pick.

Eliminate Winners Playing Good Teams

Then, I look for our predicted winners that are playing teams ranked in the top 16 and take them out of consideration.  This eliminates the Steelers who play the Titans on Thursday Night Football.  The list is down to one.

Final  Survivor Pool Pick Candidate

This week we weren’t left with options but the one we have is a great pick.  The Patriots against the Raiders in Mexico City happens Sunday afternoon.  The Raiders haven’t shown they should be trusted week to week.  They’re coming off a bye so maybe they’ve gotten it together.

We know the Patriots are rolling.  They’ll shred the Raiders defense. Take the Patriots to survive NFL Week 11.

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NFL Predictions Week 11 – 2017

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted every NFL game on the board in week 11 including Steelers vs. Titans, Bears vs. Lions, Giants vs. Chiefs, Dolphins vs. Bucs, Packers vs. Ravens, Vikings vs. Rams, Texans vs. Cardinals, Browns vs. Jaguars, Saints vs. Redskins, Chargers vs. Bills, Broncos vs. Bengals, Raiders vs. Patriots in Mexico City, Cowboys vs. Eagles and Seahawks vs. Falcons.

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NFL Predictions – Week 11

thursday night football

November 16, 2017

TEAM WIN% SCORE VEGAS LINE
Titans 35% Get Predicted 44
Steelers 65% Score -7

November 19, 2017

TEAM WIN% SCORE VEGAS LINE
Lions 62% Get Predicted -3
Bears 38% Score 41.5
Chiefs 75% Get Predicted -10.5
Giants 25% Score 43.5
Bucs 57% Get Predicted 40.5
Dolphins 43% Score -2.5
Ravens 49% Get Predicted -2
Packers 51% Score 38
Rams 63% Get Predicted 46
Vikings 37% Score -2.5
Cardinals 45% Get Predicted -1.5
Texans 55% Score 43.5
Jaguars 87% Get Predicted -7.5
Browns 13% Score 37.5
Redskins 17% Get Predicted 51
Saints 83% Score -8
Bills 44% Get Predicted 43.5
Chargers 56% Score -4
Bengals 54% Get Predicted 39.5
Broncos 46% Score -2.5
Patriots 68% Get Predicted -6.5
Raiders (in Mexico City) 32% Score 52
Eagles 62% Get Predicted -3
Cowboys 38% Score 48

November 20, 2017

TEAM WIN% SCORE VEGAS LINE
Falcons 39% Get Predicted 45
Seahawks 61% Score -3

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NFL Power Rankings Week 11 – 2017

Using our predictive formula we rank all 32  teams in our weekly NFL power rankings.  The AFC was able to break in to the top 4 this week with the Patriots but the NFC is still showing it’s the stronger conference at this point in the season.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 11

RANK TEAM
1 Philadelphia Eagles
2 Los Angeles Rams
3 New Orleans Saints
4 New England Patriots
5 Minnesota Vikings
6 Pittsburgh Steelers
7 Jacksonville Jaguars
8 Seattle Seahawks
9 Kansas City Chiefs
10 Carolina Panthers
11 Detroit Lions
12 Dallas Cowboys
13 Tennessee Titans
14 Atlanta Falcons
15 Green Bay Packers
16 Buffalo Bills
17 Baltimore Ravens
18 Oakland Raiders
19 Washington Redskins
20 Houston Texans
21 Arizona Cardinals
22 Los Angeles Chargers
23 New York Jets
24 Miami Dolphins
25 Cincinnati Bengals
26 Tampa Bay Bucs
27 Chicago Bears
28 Denver Broncos
29 Indianapolis Colts
30 San Francisco 49ers
31 New York Giants
32 Cleveland Browns
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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 10 – 2017

Well the Deshaun Watson injury sunk us last week.  We published prior to his injury and the Texans hung around but couldn’t beat the Colts.

We want you to survive your eliminator pool this NFL season so we’re giving our free survivor pool strategy all season. Our picks are based upon our data driven NFL predictions and power rankings.

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Survivor Pool Pick Strategy:

There are four steps to easily cut down your potential pick for your NFL survivor pool.

Eliminate the Teams We’ve Already Picked in 2017

We’re 6-1 this season having taken the Bills (week 1), Raiders (week 2),  Packers (week 3), Seahawks (week 4), Eagles (week 5) and Vikings (week 7) along with losing pick Falcons (week 6) and Texans (week 9). Only 2 of those teams, the Falcons and Bills are predicted to win this week so they’re out our of group of 14 week 10 winners.

Eliminate Toss-Up Winners

First we eliminate toss-up games.  That means we’re cutting the 1 point winners out of the list.  The Redskins, Chargers, Jets and Giants are our 1 point predictions this week so we’re still at 8 teams remaining.

Eliminate Road Winners

Next we eliminate road teams.  I don’t like taking road teams to win in the NFL at all.  Just too risky when you need a win, go with a home team.

Eliminating predicted road winners, the Steelers and Patriots are out of consideration giving us 6 teams left.

Eliminate Low Ranking Winners

Next, I look for team that aren’t in our 20 of the power rankings.  This eliminates the Bears.  Five teams are left to consider for our week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Pick.

Eliminate Winners Playing Good Teams

Then, I look for our predicted winners that are playing teams ranked in the top 16 and take them out of consideration.  This eliminates the Cardinals who play the Seahawks on Thursday night.  The list is down to four.

Final  Survivor Pool Pick Candidates

4 – Titans – The Bengals come to Tennessee off of a dreadful performance in Jacksonville.  Look for them to respond with a good effort on Sunday.

3- Lions – This is a potential letdown game for the Lions.  They come off a road win in Green Bay on Monday night to host the winless Browns who come off of a bye.

2 – Panthers – Panthers come off of a big divisional win over the Falcons last Sunday.  Playing on Monday night should prevent a letdown but this one could be closer than expected.

1 – Rams – Has there been a more impressive team than the Rams this season?  You don’t see blowouts very often in the NFL but the Rams have three this year already.  This shapes up to be another as the Texans limp to LA.  Take the Rams to survive NFL Week 10.

Get our weekly NFL Survivor Pool Picks.

NFL Predictions Week 10 – 2017

Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted every NFL game on the board in week 10 including Cardinals vs. Seahawks, Redskins vs. Vikings, Bears vs. Packers, Colts vs. Steelers, Jaguars vs. Chargers, Bucs vs. Jets, Titans vs. Bengals, Bills vs. Saints, Lions vs. Browns, Rams vs. Texans, Falcons vs. Cowboys, 49ers vs. Giants, Broncos vs. Patriots and Panthers vs. Dolphins.

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NFL Predictions – Week 10

thursday night football

November 9, 2017

TEAM WIN% SCORE VEGAS LINE
Seahawks 44% Get Predicted -6
Cardinals 56% Score 41.5

November 12, 2017

TEAM WIN% SCORE VEGAS LINE
Vikings 49% Get Predicted -1.5
Redskins 51% Score 42.5
Packers 32% Get Predicted 38
Bears 68% Score -5
Steelers 53% Get Predicted -10
Colts 47% Score 44
Chargers 50% Get Predicted 41
Jaguars 50% Score -4
Jets 51% Get Predicted -2.5
Bucs 49% Score 41.5
Bengals 43% Get Predicted 40.5
Titans 57% Score -5
Saints 46% Get Predicted -2.5
Bills 55% Score 46.5
Browns 37% Get Predicted 43.5
Lions 64% Score -12.5
Texans 35% Get Predicted 46.5
Rams 65% Score -12
Cowboys 45% Get Predicted 50.5
Falcons 55% Score -3
Giants 52% Get Predicted -1
49ers 48% Score 42
Patriots 57% Get Predicted -7.5
Broncos 43% Score 46

November 13, 2017

TEAM WIN% SCORE VEGAS LINE
Dolphins 45% Get Predicted 39.5
Panthers 55% Score -9

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NFL Power Rankings Week 10 – 2017

Using our predictive formula we rank all 32  teams in our weekly NFL power rankings.  The NFC has taken control atop the power rankings this week claiming the top 4 spots.  Good news Browns fans, you’re not last this week!

NFL Power Rankings – Week 10

RANK TEAM
1 Philadelphia Eagles
2 Los Angeles Rams
3 New Orleans Saints
4 Minnesota Vikings
5 New England Patriots
6 Pittsburgh Steelers
7 Jacksonville Jaguars
8 Kansas City Chiefs
9 Dallas Cowboys
10 Seattle Seahawks
11 Buffalo Bills
12 Carolina Panthers
13 Tennessee Titans
14 Detroit Lions
15 Atlanta Falcons
16 Green Bay Packers
17 Washington Redskins
18 Baltimore Ravens
19 Houston Texans
20 Arizona Cardinals
21 Miami Dolphins
22 New York Jets
23 Oakland Raiders
24 Los Angeles Chargers
25 Cincinnati Bengals
26 Chicago Bears
27 Denver Broncos
28 Tampa Bay Bucs
29 Indianapolis Colts
30 New York Giants
31 Cleveland Browns
32 San Francisco 49ers
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Formulator NFL Report – Week 9 (2017)

We’re at the midpoint of the 2017-18 NFL season. This is the debut of a new feature where we show you how the Formulator has done predicting each NFL team this season.

Check out the records of how we’ve predicted games involving each team with Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS) and on the Total. We give you their overall record and on the road or at home since it’s a small sample.

Let’s go inside the numbers for NFL week 9 now!

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NFL Week 9 Breakdown

Thursday

Bills (-3, 43) at Jets

SportsFormulator Prediction – Bills 21-19

Bills (Overall) – 86% SU, 83% ATS and 50% Total

Jets (Overall) – 88% SU, 71% ATS and 63% Total

Bills (Road) – 67% SU, 100% ATS, 0% Total

Jets (Home) – 75% SU, 75% ATS, 75% Total

Sunday

Broncos at Eagles (-7.5, 43.5)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Eagles 22-17

Broncos (Overall) – 71% SU, 57% ATS, 43% Total

Eagles (Overall) – 63% SU, 38% ATS, 43% Total

Broncos (Away) – 100% SU, 33% ATS, 33% Total

Eagles (Home) – 100% SU, 0% ATS, 25% Total

Rams (-3.5, 42) at Giants

SportsFormulator Prediction – Giants 23-16

Rams (Overall) – 29% SU, 29% ATS, 43% Total

Giants (Overall) – 43% SU, 43% ATS, 43% Total

Rams (Away) – 0% SU, 0% ATS, 50% Total

Giants (Home) – 0% SU, 0% ATS, 67% Total

Bucs at Saints (-7, 50)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Saints 27-26

Bucs (Overall) – 86% SU, 67% ATS, 57% Total

Saints (Overall) – 86% SU, 43% ATS, 50% Total

Bucs (Away) – 100% SU, 100% ATS, 100% Total

Saints (Home) – 100% SU, 33% ATS, 33% Total

Bengals at Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Jaguars 21-20

Bengals (Overall) – 71% SU, 71% ATS, 43% Total

Jaguars (Overall) – 29% SU, 43% ATS, 50% Total

Bengals (Away) – 100% SU, 100% ATS, 33% Total

Jaguars (Home) – 50% SU, 0% ATS, 50% Total

Falcons at Panthers (-2, 43.5)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Falcons 27-24

Falcons (Overall) – 71% SU, 71% ATS, 43% Total

Panthers (Overall) – 38% SU, 71% ATS, 17% Total

Falcons (Away) – 100% SU, 50% ATS, 50% Total

Panthers (Home) – 33% SU, 100% ATS, 0% Total

Colts at Texans (-12.5, 49)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Texans 22-20

Colts (Overall) – 63% SU, 50% ATS, 63% Total

Texans (Overall) – 57% SU, 29% ATS, 0% Total

Colts (Road) – 50% SU, 25% ATS, 75% Total

Texans (Home) – 50% SU, 25% ATS, 0% Total

Ravens at Titans (-5.5, 43)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Titans 25-21

Ravens (Overall) – 38% SU, 38% ATS, 75% Total

Titans (Overall) – 71% SU, 57% ATS, 57% Total

Ravens (Away) – 25% SU, 25% ATS, 100% Total

Titans (Home) – 33% SU, 33% ATS, 67% Total

Cardinals (-1.5, 39) at 49ers

SportsFormulator Prediction – Cardinals 27-24

Cardinals (Overall) – 71% SU, 29% ATS, 50% Total

49ers (Overall) – 88% SU, 43% ATS, 50% Total

Cardinals (Away) – 75% SU, 25% ATS, 33% Total

49ers (Home) – 67% SU, 50% ATS, 33% Total

Redskins at Seahawks (-7, 45)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Seahawks 26-21

Redskins (Overall) – 71% SU, 71% ATS, 43% Total

Seahawks (Overall) – 86% SU, 43% ATS, 57% Total

Redskins (Away) – 100% SU, 33% SU, 33% Total

Seahawks (Home) – 100% SU, 0% ATS, 33%

Chiefs at Cowboys (Pick ‘Em, 51)

SportsFormulator Prediction – Cowboys 26-23

Chiefs (Overall) – 63% SU, 25% ATS, 50% Total

Cowboys (Overall) – 43% SU, 50% ATS, 43% Total

Chiefs (Away) – 50% SU, 50% ATS, 25% Total

Cowboys (Home) – 33% SU, 33% ATS, 67% Total

Raiders (-3, 44) at Dolphins

SportsFormulator Prediction – Dolphins 24-23

Raiders (Overall) – 50% SU, 29% ATS, 88% Total

Dolphins (Overall) – 57% SU, 100% ATS, 57% Total

Raiders (Away) – 50% SU, 25% ATS, 100% Total

Dolphins (Home) – 100% SU, 100% ATS, 50% Total

Monday

Lions (-2.5, 43) at Packers

SportsFormulator Prediction – Packers 24-20

Lions (Overall) – 43% SU, 0% ATS, 83% Total

Packers (Overall) – 86% SU, 71% ATS, 71% Total

Lions (Away) – 33% SU, 0% ATS, 100% Total

Packers (Home) – 100% SU, 75% ATS, 75% Total

NFL Week 9 NOTES

The Formulator is 100% ATS in all games involving the Dolphins and 83% with the Bills.

The Formulator has yet to be correct ATS in all games involving the Lions.

The Formulator is 88% on Totals for all games involving the Raiders and Steelers this season plus 83% on Lions games.

The Formulator has been wrong on the Total for every game involving the Houston Texans this season.

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