2026 College Football Conference Predictions
Conference races are where a preseason model gets stress-tested. One upset can create a four-team tie, change a title-game matchup and knock a contender out of the playoff. SportsFormulator simulated the full schedule 44,444 times, tracked conference records and applied the league race structure to identify the most likely finalists and champions.
Projected championship: UTSA vs. East Carolina. Projected champion: UTSA (27.1% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | UTSA | 9-3 | 6-2 | 44.8% | 27.1% |
| 2 | East Carolina | 8-4 | 6-2 | 29.1% | 14.3% |
| 3 | Navy | 7-5 | 5-3 | 26.3% | 11.7% |
| 4 | Memphis | 8-4 | 5-3 | 27.1% | 14.7% |
| 5 | Tulane | 7-5 | 5-3 | 23.7% | 11.9% |
| 6 | USF | 8-4 | 5-3 | 18.2% | 9.3% |
| 7 | Army | 7-5 | 4-4 | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| 8 | Temple | 6-6 | 4-4 | 7.6% | 2.8% |
| 9 | Tulsa | 6-6 | 4-4 | 6.0% | 1.8% |
| 10 | North Texas | 5-7 | 3-5 | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| 11 | UAB | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Rice | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 14 | Charlotte | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: Miami (FL) vs. SMU. Projected champion: Miami (FL) (38.0% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Miami (FL) | 9-3 | 7-2 | 56.5% | 38.0% |
| 2 | SMU | 8-4 | 6-3 | 28.3% | 14.0% |
| 3 | Louisville | 8-4 | 6-3 | 25.2% | 11.6% |
| 4 | Virginia | 8-4 | 6-3 | 20.9% | 9.5% |
| 5 | Pitt | 8-4 | 5-4 | 15.5% | 6.9% |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | 7-5 | 5-4 | 10.0% | 4.2% |
| 7 | Duke | 7-5 | 5-4 | 9.1% | 3.4% |
| 8 | NC State | 7-5 | 5-4 | 8.9% | 3.1% |
| 9 | Clemson | 7-5 | 4-4 | 8.6% | 3.4% |
| 10 | Wake Forest | 7-5 | 4-5 | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| 11 | California | 6-6 | 4-5 | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| 12 | Florida State | 7-5 | 4-4 | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| 13 | Syracuse | 5-7 | 3-6 | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | 5-7 | 3-5 | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 15 | Boston College | 4-8 | 2-6 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 16 | Stanford | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 17 | North Carolina | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: Texas Tech vs. BYU. Projected champion: Texas Tech (51.1% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Texas Tech | 11-1 | 8-1 | 70.5% | 51.1% |
| 2 | BYU | 9-3 | 7-2 | 35.5% | 15.2% |
| 3 | Houston | 9-3 | 6-3 | 26.1% | 11.4% |
| 4 | Arizona | 8-4 | 6-3 | 18.9% | 8.0% |
| 5 | Kansas State | 8-4 | 5-4 | 11.1% | 3.5% |
| 6 | Utah | 8-4 | 5-4 | 10.2% | 3.2% |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 7-5 | 5-4 | 8.7% | 2.7% |
| 8 | Baylor | 6-6 | 4-5 | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| 9 | Arizona State | 6-6 | 4-5 | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| 10 | TCU | 7-5 | 4-5 | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| 11 | Kansas | 6-6 | 4-5 | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| 12 | West Virginia | 6-6 | 4-5 | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 13 | Cincinnati | 6-6 | 3-6 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 14 | Iowa State | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 15 | UCF | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 16 | Colorado | 3-9 | 1-8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: Ohio State vs. Oregon. Projected champion: Ohio State (44.6% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Ohio State | 11-1 | 8-1 | 66.3% | 44.6% |
| 2 | Oregon | 11-1 | 8-1 | 66.0% | 31.4% |
| 3 | Indiana | 11-1 | 8-1 | 53.2% | 22.3% |
| 4 | Penn State | 8-4 | 6-3 | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| 5 | Michigan | 7-5 | 5-4 | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| 6 | USC | 7-5 | 5-4 | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| 7 | Washington | 7-5 | 5-4 | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 8 | Maryland | 7-5 | 5-4 | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Iowa | 7-5 | 5-4 | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Illinois | 7-5 | 4-5 | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Michigan State | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 13 | UCLA | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Northwestern | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Minnesota | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Nebraska | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 17 | Purdue | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Rutgers | 4-8 | 2-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: WKU vs. Jacksonville State. Projected champion: WKU (23.8% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | WKU | 6-6 | 5-3 | 40.8% | 23.8% |
| 2 | Jacksonville State | 7-5 | 5-3 | 40.2% | 23.3% |
| 3 | Delaware | 7-5 | 5-3 | 29.2% | 15.2% |
| 4 | Kennesaw State | 7-5 | 4-4 | 24.4% | 12.1% |
| 5 | Liberty | 7-5 | 4-4 | 18.3% | 7.8% |
| 6 | FIU | 6-6 | 4-4 | 16.0% | 6.1% |
| 7 | Missouri State | 5-7 | 4-4 | 13.1% | 5.3% |
| 8 | Middle Tennessee | 6-6 | 4-4 | 12.1% | 4.7% |
| 9 | New Mexico State | 4-8 | 3-5 | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| 10 | Sam Houston | 4-8 | 2-6 | 1.9% | 0.4% |
Independents
Independents do not play a conference championship game. Their race is for bowl position and College Football Playoff access.
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Notre Dame | 11-1 | 0-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | UConn | 7-5 | 0-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: Toledo vs. Western Michigan. Projected champion: Western Michigan (24.2% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Toledo | 8-4 | 6-2 | 41.0% | 23.4% |
| 2 | Western Michigan | 8-4 | 6-2 | 39.4% | 24.2% |
| 3 | Eastern Michigan | 8-4 | 6-2 | 35.4% | 19.2% |
| 4 | Ohio | 8-4 | 5-3 | 27.0% | 12.9% |
| 5 | Miami (Ohio) | 7-5 | 5-3 | 18.9% | 7.8% |
| 6 | Central Michigan | 6-6 | 4-4 | 12.7% | 4.9% |
| 7 | Buffalo | 7-5 | 4-4 | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| 8 | Bowling Green | 6-6 | 4-4 | 7.3% | 2.2% |
| 9 | Kent State | 5-7 | 3-5 | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| 10 | Ball State | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| 11 | Akron | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 13 | UMass | 2-10 | 0-8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: New Mexico vs. UNLV. Projected champion: New Mexico (35.9% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | New Mexico | 9-3 | 6-2 | 54.1% | 35.9% |
| 2 | UNLV | 9-3 | 6-2 | 40.3% | 22.4% |
| 3 | North Dakota State | 8-4 | 5-4 | 21.8% | 9.1% |
| 4 | Hawaii | 8-4 | 5-3 | 28.7% | 12.1% |
| 5 | Air Force | 8-4 | 5-3 | 20.8% | 8.2% |
| 6 | Nevada | 8-4 | 5-3 | 18.5% | 6.8% |
| 7 | Wyoming | 8-4 | 5-3 | 14.8% | 5.3% |
| 8 | San Jose State | 5-8 | 3-6 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Northern Illinois | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | UTEP | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: Boise State vs. San Diego State. Projected champion: Boise State (26.5% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Boise State | 7-5 | 5-3 | 46.9% | 26.5% |
| 2 | San Diego State | 8-4 | 5-3 | 42.2% | 23.0% |
| 3 | Texas State | 7-5 | 5-3 | 40.8% | 20.6% |
| 4 | Washington State | 6-6 | 4-4 | 27.0% | 12.1% |
| 5 | Fresno State | 7-5 | 4-4 | 24.1% | 10.9% |
| 6 | Utah State | 6-6 | 4-4 | 14.7% | 5.9% |
| 7 | Colorado State | 4-8 | 2-6 | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| 8 | Oregon State | 4-8 | 2-6 | 1.4% | 0.3% |
Projected championship: Georgia vs. Texas. Projected champion: Georgia (57.7% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | Georgia | 11-1 | 8-1 | 77.3% | 57.7% |
| 2 | Texas | 8-4 | 6-3 | 31.3% | 12.8% |
| 3 | Ole Miss | 9-3 | 6-3 | 22.6% | 9.0% |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 8-4 | 6-3 | 16.3% | 5.3% |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 8-4 | 6-3 | 16.5% | 6.2% |
| 6 | Tennessee | 8-4 | 5-4 | 10.4% | 2.7% |
| 7 | Alabama | 7-5 | 5-4 | 8.2% | 2.3% |
| 8 | LSU | 7-5 | 5-4 | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| 9 | Auburn | 7-5 | 4-5 | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| 10 | South Carolina | 6-6 | 4-5 | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Mississippi State | 6-6 | 3-6 | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| 12 | Florida | 6-6 | 3-6 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 13 | Missouri | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 14 | Vanderbilt | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 15 | Kentucky | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Arkansas | 4-8 | 2-7 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Projected championship: James Madison vs. Louisiana. Projected champion: James Madison (37.8% title chance).
| # | Team | Overall | Conference | Title Game | Win League |
| 1 | James Madison | 9-3 | 6-2 | 53.7% | 37.8% |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 8-4 | 6-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Louisiana | 7-5 | 4-4 | 25.8% | 10.9% |
| 4 | Marshall | 7-5 | 4-4 | 14.1% | 7.2% |
| 5 | Arkansas State | 6-6 | 4-4 | 20.5% | 8.0% |
| 6 | Troy | 7-5 | 4-4 | 20.8% | 9.2% |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 6-6 | 4-4 | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 6-6 | 4-4 | 15.6% | 6.5% |
| 9 | Appalachian State | 6-6 | 4-4 | 8.0% | 3.4% |
| 10 | South Alabama | 6-6 | 4-4 | 12.7% | 4.4% |
| 11 | Coastal Carolina | 6-6 | 3-5 | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| 12 | Georgia Southern | 5-7 | 3-5 | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| 13 | Georgia State | 5-7 | 3-5 | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 14 | ULM | 5-7 | 3-5 | 4.7% | 1.3% |
Bottom Line
The predicted standings are the cleanest single-season outcome, but the probabilities matter just as much. A team projected second may still have the league’s widest path to the title game, while a narrow favorite can be one road upset from missing Indianapolis, Atlanta or Arlington entirely.