2026 College Football Win Totals: Best Over/Under Picks
Win totals are one of the cleanest ways to turn a season projection into a testable opinion. We compared the consensus-listed VegasInsider number for each available team with SportsFormulator’s average wins across 44,444 full-season simulations. The bigger the gap, the stronger the model disagreement.
Best Over Picks
1 – Nevada Over 4.5: 98.7% chance to go over (98.7% Over, 1.3% Under). Predicted record: 8-4; SOS rank: No. 84.
2 – Eastern Michigan Over 5.5: 95.6% chance to go over (95.6% Over, 4.4% Under). Predicted record: 8-4; SOS rank: No. 136.
3 – New Mexico Over 7.5: 89.0% chance to go over (89.0% Over, 11.0% Under). Predicted record: 9-3; SOS rank: No. 61.
4 – Ohio State Over 9.5: 88.4% chance to go over (88.4% Over, 11.6% Under). Predicted record: 11-1; SOS rank: No. 5.
5 – UConn Over 5.5: 85.7% chance to go over (85.7% Over, 14.3% Under). Predicted record: 7-5; SOS rank: No. 111.
6 – Georgia Over 9.5: 85.2% chance to go over (85.2% Over, 14.8% Under). Predicted record: 11-1; SOS rank: No. 30.
7 – Bowling Green Over 4.5: 80.8% chance to go over (80.8% Over, 19.2% Under). Predicted record: 6-6; SOS rank: No. 135.
8 – Ole Miss Over 7.5: 77.3% chance to go over (77.3% Over, 22.7% Under). Predicted record: 9-3; SOS rank: No. 19.
9 – UTSA Over 7.5: 74.4% chance to go over (74.4% Over, 25.6% Under). Predicted record: 9-3; SOS rank: No. 105.
10 – Ohio Over 6.5: 73.5% chance to go over (73.5% Over, 26.5% Under). Predicted record: 8-4; SOS rank: No. 132.
Best Under Picks
1 – Liberty Under 8.5: 90.0% chance to go under (10.0% Over, 90.0% Under). Predicted record: 7-5; SOS rank: No. 131.
2 – Michigan Under 8.5: 86.2% chance to go under (13.8% Over, 86.2% Under). Predicted record: 7-5; SOS rank: No. 3.
3 – Texas Under 9.5: 83.7% chance to go under (16.3% Over, 83.7% Under). Predicted record: 8-4; SOS rank: No. 1.
4 – Georgia Tech Under 6.5: 83.6% chance to go under (16.4% Over, 83.6% Under). Predicted record: 5-7; SOS rank: No. 42.
5 – Penn State Under 9.5: 82.6% chance to go under (17.4% Over, 82.6% Under). Predicted record: 8-4; SOS rank: No. 44.
6 – Wisconsin Under 6.5: 81.9% chance to go under (18.1% Over, 81.9% Under). Predicted record: 5-7; SOS rank: No. 48.
7 – Old Dominion Under 7.5: 81.6% chance to go under (18.4% Over, 81.6% Under). Predicted record: 6-6; SOS rank: No. 99.
8 – Boise State Under 8.5: 81.4% chance to go under (18.6% Over, 81.4% Under). Predicted record: 7-5; SOS rank: No. 67.
9 – Missouri Under 6.5: 80.9% chance to go under (19.1% Over, 80.9% Under). Predicted record: 5-7; SOS rank: No. 9.
10 – North Carolina Under 4.5: 79.7% chance to go under (20.3% Over, 79.7% Under). Predicted record: 3-9; SOS rank: No. 25.
Complete Model vs. Market Board
| Team | Total | Pick | Over % | Under % | Pred. Record | SOS Rank |
| Nevada | 4.5 | OVER | 98.7% | 1.3% | 8-4 | 84 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.5 | OVER | 95.6% | 4.4% | 8-4 | 136 |
| Liberty | 8.5 | UNDER | 10.0% | 90.0% | 7-5 | 131 |
| New Mexico | 7.5 | OVER | 89.0% | 11.0% | 9-3 | 61 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | OVER | 88.4% | 11.6% | 11-1 | 5 |
| Michigan | 8.5 | UNDER | 13.8% | 86.2% | 7-5 | 3 |
| UConn | 5.5 | OVER | 85.7% | 14.3% | 7-5 | 111 |
| Georgia | 9.5 | OVER | 85.2% | 14.8% | 11-1 | 30 |
| Texas | 9.5 | UNDER | 16.3% | 83.7% | 8-4 | 1 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.5 | UNDER | 16.4% | 83.6% | 5-7 | 42 |
| Penn State | 9.5 | UNDER | 17.4% | 82.6% | 8-4 | 44 |
| Wisconsin | 6.5 | UNDER | 18.1% | 81.9% | 5-7 | 48 |
| Old Dominion | 7.5 | UNDER | 18.4% | 81.6% | 6-6 | 99 |
| Boise State | 8.5 | UNDER | 18.6% | 81.4% | 7-5 | 67 |
| Missouri | 6.5 | UNDER | 19.1% | 80.9% | 5-7 | 9 |
| Bowling Green | 4.5 | OVER | 80.8% | 19.2% | 6-6 | 135 |
| North Carolina | 4.5 | UNDER | 20.3% | 79.7% | 3-9 | 25 |
| USC | 8.5 | UNDER | 20.3% | 79.7% | 7-5 | 4 |
| LSU | 8.5 | UNDER | 22.1% | 77.9% | 7-5 | 11 |
| Nebraska | 6.5 | UNDER | 22.3% | 77.7% | 5-7 | 8 |
| Ole Miss | 7.5 | OVER | 77.3% | 22.7% | 9-3 | 19 |
| Alabama | 8.5 | UNDER | 23.5% | 76.5% | 7-5 | 13 |
| Kansas State | 8.5 | UNDER | 25.5% | 74.5% | 8-4 | 64 |
| UTSA | 7.5 | OVER | 74.4% | 25.6% | 9-3 | 105 |
| Minnesota | 6.5 | UNDER | 26.3% | 73.7% | 6-6 | 38 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | OVER | 73.5% | 26.5% | 8-4 | 132 |
| Utah | 8.5 | UNDER | 26.6% | 73.4% | 8-4 | 68 |
| Notre Dame | 11.5 | UNDER | 28.0% | 72.0% | 11-1 | 63 |
| Oregon State | 4.5 | UNDER | 28.3% | 71.7% | 4-8 | 73 |
| Oklahoma | 8.5 | UNDER | 28.4% | 71.6% | 8-4 | 2 |
| Hawaii | 7.5 | OVER | 71.1% | 28.9% | 8-4 | 77 |
| Texas State | 6.5 | OVER | 70.6% | 29.4% | 7-5 | 92 |
| Central Michigan | 6.5 | UNDER | 30.0% | 70.0% | 6-6 | 103 |
| Temple | 5.5 | OVER | 70.0% | 30.0% | 6-6 | 100 |
| Louisville | 8.5 | UNDER | 32.1% | 67.9% | 8-4 | 65 |
| Illinois | 7.5 | UNDER | 32.5% | 67.5% | 7-5 | 27 |
| Northwestern | 5.5 | OVER | 67.3% | 32.7% | 6-6 | 21 |
| Appalachian State | 5.5 | OVER | 66.6% | 33.4% | 6-6 | 127 |
| UCF | 5.5 | UNDER | 33.5% | 66.5% | 5-7 | 66 |
| Georgia Southern | 4.5 | OVER | 66.2% | 33.8% | 5-7 | 93 |
| Virginia Tech | 6.5 | OVER | 65.8% | 34.2% | 7-5 | 57 |
| South Carolina | 6.5 | UNDER | 35.6% | 64.4% | 6-6 | 20 |
| Colorado State | 3.5 | OVER | 64.1% | 35.9% | 4-8 | 62 |
| Western Michigan | 7.5 | OVER | 64.1% | 35.9% | 8-4 | 120 |
| SMU | 8.5 | UNDER | 37.3% | 62.7% | 8-4 | 54 |
| Arizona State | 6.5 | UNDER | 37.5% | 62.5% | 6-6 | 28 |
| Auburn | 6.5 | OVER | 62.2% | 37.8% | 7-5 | 15 |
| New Mexico State | 4.5 | UNDER | 38.3% | 61.7% | 4-8 | 96 |
| Louisiana | 7.5 | UNDER | 38.7% | 61.3% | 7-5 | 128 |
| Iowa State | 4.5 | OVER | 61.0% | 39.0% | 5-7 | 51 |
| NC State | 7.5 | UNDER | 39.9% | 60.1% | 7-5 | 79 |
| UNLV | 8.5 | OVER | 59.7% | 40.3% | 9-3 | 40 |
| Navy | 7.5 | UNDER | 41.3% | 58.7% | 7-5 | 98 |
| Air Force | 7.5 | OVER | 58.6% | 41.4% | 8-4 | 74 |
| Arkansas State | 6.5 | UNDER | 41.6% | 58.4% | 6-6 | 110 |
| Houston | 8.5 | OVER | 56.8% | 43.2% | 9-3 | 78 |
| Oklahoma State | 6.5 | OVER | 56.7% | 43.3% | 7-5 | 39 |
| Tennessee | 7.5 | OVER | 56.0% | 44.0% | 8-4 | 29 |
| Texas A&M | 8.5 | UNDER | 44.1% | 55.9% | 8-4 | 26 |
| Fresno State | 6.5 | OVER | 54.9% | 45.1% | 7-5 | 80 |
| Tulane | 7.5 | UNDER | 45.5% | 54.5% | 7-5 | 82 |
| TCU | 6.5 | OVER | 54.3% | 45.7% | 7-5 | 47 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.5 | OVER | 54.2% | 45.8% | 7-5 | 122 |
| Indiana | 10.5 | OVER | 54.1% | 45.9% | 11-1 | 35 |
| Akron | 4.5 | UNDER | 46.0% | 54.0% | 4-8 | 119 |
| Syracuse | 4.5 | OVER | 53.9% | 46.1% | 5-7 | 36 |
| Texas Tech | 10.5 | UNDER | 46.8% | 53.2% | 11-1 | 85 |
| James Madison | 8.5 | OVER | 53.0% | 47.0% | 9-3 | 117 |
| Michigan State | 4.5 | OVER | 52.9% | 47.1% | 5-7 | 6 |
| Troy | 6.5 | OVER | 52.8% | 47.2% | 7-5 | 112 |
| San Diego State | 7.5 | UNDER | 50.1% | 49.9% | 8-4 | 95 |
| BYU | 8.5 | UNDER | 50.7% | 49.3% | 9-3 | 52 |
| Oregon | 10.5 | UNDER | 51.9% | 48.1% | 11-1 | 14 |
Market and Method Notes
Odds and totals move. The board used here was updated August 26, 2026.
Each Over and Under percentage is the share of 44,444 simulated regular seasons that finished above or below the listed total. Every total on this board ends in .5, so no push probability applies.
A simulation probability is not a guarantee. Injuries, quarterback changes, eligibility decisions and schedule changes can move the true expectation quickly.
Source: https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/win-totals/