2026 NFL Power Rankings: Preseason Edition
The SportsFormulator 2026 NFL Power Rankings evaluate all 32 teams before the regular season begins. These rankings focus on current team strength rather than last year’s record, public expectations or sportsbook popularity.
For sports bettors, power rankings provide a baseline for evaluating weekly point spreads, season win totals, playoff odds and Super Bowl futures. Schedule difficulty is handled separately, which is why a team’s projected record may not perfectly match its position in the rankings.
2026 NFL Power Rankings
| Rank | Team | Projected Record | Playoff Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 15-2 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 10-7 | 73.4% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 14-3 | 97.4% |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14-3 | 97.2% |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 89.3% |
| 6 | Houston Texans | 13-4 | 90.4% |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 11-6 | 68.4% |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | 12-5 | 94.9% |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | 11-6 | 66.8% |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 11-6 | 80.9% |
| 11 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-8 | 28.3% |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 91.4% |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 10-7 | 54.7% |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | 9-8 | 52.5% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10-7 | 49.6% |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 10-7 | 63.0% |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | 9-8 | 32.5% |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 43.6% |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 7-10 | 8.2% |
| 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-10 | 38.9% |
| 21 | New York Giants | 7-10 | 7.3% |
| 22 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7-10 | 5.4% |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 | 31.0% |
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | 5-12 | 9.7% |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 7-10 | 24.0% |
| 26 | Miami Dolphins | 4-13 | <0.1% |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | 4-13 | 0.6% |
| 28 | Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 0.6% |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | <0.1% |
| 30 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4-13 | <0.1% |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 2-15 | <0.1% |
| 32 | New York Jets | 2-15 | <0.1% |
Tier 1: The 2026 NFL Elite
1. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle opens the season as the clear No. 1 team. The Seahawks combine the league’s strongest overall profile with a manageable schedule, producing 15.16 expected wins and a 79.5% probability of reaching the Super Bowl. Bettors will rarely find discounted prices, but Seattle establishes the standard against which every opponent should be measured.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams rank second on pure team strength, although their difficult schedule pulls the projected record down to 10-7. Los Angeles plays in a loaded NFC West and faces the fifth-hardest schedule. That gap between power and projected wins is important when evaluating weekly lines: the Rams may be stronger than their record eventually suggests.
3. New England Patriots
New England projects as the AFC’s leading team. The Patriots are forecast for 13.58 wins, make the playoffs in 97.4% of simulations and reach the Super Bowl 39.5% of the time. Their schedule ranks seventh-hardest, making the projected record particularly impressive.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is one of the model’s largest disagreements with the betting market. The Jaguars project for 13.61 wins and own a 25.8% chance of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Their combination of strong team quality and a near-average schedule creates significant season-long upside.
5. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo rounds out the top five with 12.49 expected wins. The Bills remain a major AFC contender but must overcome New England within the division and the league’s 11th-hardest schedule.
Tier 2: Serious Playoff and Super Bowl Contenders
6. Houston Texans: Houston projects for 12.64 wins and a 90.4% playoff probability. The AFC South race with Jacksonville should influence both teams’ division and conference futures.
7. Denver Broncos: Denver pairs top-10 team strength with the sixth-hardest schedule. The Broncos project well, but the schedule prevents their playoff probability from matching their 11-win expectation.
8. Detroit Lions: Detroit benefits from one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. The Lions reach the playoffs in 94.9% of simulations and represent one of the strongest combinations of quality and opportunity.
9. Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis projects above 11 wins despite sharing a division with Jacksonville and Houston. The Colts’ favorable schedule helps offset the strength of their divisional opponents.
10. San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco remains a legitimate contender but must chase Seattle in the NFC West. The 49ers’ 80.9% playoff probability is strong for a team unlikely to win its division outright.
Tier 3: Playoff Teams With Important Questions
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City’s reputation may exceed its current projection. The Chiefs are forecast for 9.42 wins and make the playoffs in only 28.3% of simulations.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia’s favorable NFC East position drives a 91.4% playoff probability. The Eagles rank outside the top 10 in power but have a clearer postseason path than several teams above them.
13. Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota projects near 10 wins and sits on the positive side of the NFC playoff bubble. The Vikings’ schedule is almost exactly league average.
14. Green Bay Packers: Green Bay is another borderline NFC playoff team. Its 52.5% postseason probability accurately reflects how narrow the margin is between a wild-card berth and missing the field.
15. Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers have top-half team strength but face the NFL’s fourth-hardest schedule. Their playoff probability lands almost perfectly at 50%.
16. Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore projects for 10.25 wins and benefits from a favorable schedule. The Ravens remain the AFC North favorite, although their championship probability trails the league’s elite teams.
Tier 4: The Middle of the League
Chicago, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tampa Bay, the New York Giants, Cincinnati and Atlanta occupy the volatile middle and lower-middle portion of the rankings.
Pittsburgh’s 9.53 expected wins are stronger than its No. 18 ranking because of a favorable schedule. Atlanta and Tampa Bay have losing projected records but remain relevant because the NFC South lacks a dominant favorite.
Dallas and the Giants face a more difficult route. Both trail Philadelphia in the NFC East and carry playoff probabilities below 10%. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule but still projects well below its posted season win total.
Tier 5: Rebuilding and No. 1-Pick Candidates
Carolina, New Orleans, Miami, Washington, Cleveland, Arizona, Las Vegas, Tennessee and the New York Jets begin the season in the bottom nine.
The Jets rank last and have a 44.5% probability of finishing with the NFL’s worst record. Tennessee is the primary challenger at 32.0%, while Arizona ranks third in No. 1-pick probability at 11.3%.
New Orleans is an interesting exception within this group. The Saints rank only 25th in team strength but have the league’s easiest schedule, keeping their NFC South and playoff probabilities alive.
How Sports Bettors Should Use NFL Power Rankings
Power rankings are most valuable when they differ from public perception or the betting market. They can help bettors:
- Estimate fair point spreads before sportsbook lines are released.
- Identify teams whose records overstate or understate their actual strength.
- Compare season win totals with schedule-adjusted projections.
- Evaluate whether playoff and Super Bowl prices offer sufficient value.
- Recognize when injuries or roster changes have not been fully reflected by the market.
The SportsFormulator rankings are produced with a private internal model. The exact underlying rating values are proprietary and are not published. Rankings, projected records and probabilities will change as new information becomes available.
2026 NFL Power Rankings Takeaways
Seattle is the clear preseason No. 1, followed by the Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Bills. The largest gap between power and projected record belongs to the Rams, whose difficult schedule suppresses their win expectation.
Detroit benefits most clearly from the opposite combination: a top-10 ranking and one of the easiest schedules. At the bottom, the Jets and Titans face the greatest risk of finishing with the league’s worst record.
Check SportsFormulator throughout the season for updated NFL power rankings, weekly matchup projections and sports betting analysis.
Sports betting involves risk. Wager only what you can afford to lose and follow all laws applicable in your location.