How the 2025 College Football Preseason Rankings Compare: SportsFormulator vs. AP & Coaches Polls
How do our numbers stack up against the legacy polls? Here’s where the three Top-25s agree, where they clash, and what it means for the 2025 season. Here are how our 2025 college football preseason rankings!
Quick Takeaways
- No unanimous No. 1: SportsFormulator puts Penn State at #1, while Texas tops both the AP and Coaches polls.
- Top-3 consensus tier: Some order of Texas, Penn State, Ohio State appears in all three lists.
- Model bullishness: Our ratings are far higher than the AP/Coaches on Florida (#6 SF; #15 AP; #17 Coaches), Illinois (#8 SF; #12 AP/Coaches), Texas A&M (#13 SF; #19 AP; #21 Coaches), and sleepers like Louisville (#17 SF) and TCU (#18 SF) who don’t appear in the other two polls.
- Model skepticism: We’re lower on Clemson (#11 SF; #4 AP; #6 Coaches), South Carolina (#20 SF; #13 AP/Coaches) and Miami (FL) (#15 SF; #10 AP/Coaches). Michigan, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas Tech don’t crack our Top 25.
- Across all three lists: 20 teams overlap. The biggest “only in one poll” calls are BYU (#23 Coaches only) and Navy (#24 SportsFormulator only).
Top of the Mountain: Same Teams, Different Order
- SportsFormulator Top 3: 1) Penn State, 2) Texas, 3) Ohio State
- AP Top 3: 1) Texas, 2) Penn State, 3) Ohio State
- Coaches Top 3: 1) Texas, 2) Ohio State, 3) Penn State
All three polls view Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State as the class of 2025, but we give the edge to Penn State based on our preseason power numbers. The traditional polls stick with the Longhorns at #1 after last season’s surge and talent profile.
The Next Wave: Notre Dame, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, LSU
- Notre Dame sits #4 in SportsFormulator, compared with #6 AP and #5 Coaches — modestly more bullish from the model.
- Georgia is #7 SportsFormulator vs. #5 AP and #4 Coaches — we’re slightly cooler on the Dawgs.
- Oregon lands #5 SportsFormulator, #7 AP/Coaches — we’re a bit higher on the Ducks.
- Alabama and LSU are Top-10 across the board (we have Bama #10, LSU #9), signaling broad confidence in both rosters’ floors.
Bottom line: There’s a strong eight-team “near-consensus” tier (Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, LSU). The precise order is the argument, not the membership.
Where Our Data Driven Model Diverges the Most
SportsFormulator is higher than AP/Coaches on:
- Florida – #6 (SF) vs. #15 AP / #17 Coaches
Big mover. The model likes the Gators’ underlying power rating more than public polls. - Illinois – #8 (SF) vs. #12 AP/Coaches
We see Top-10 potential; others see fringe Top-12. - Texas A&M – #13 (SF) vs. #19 AP / #21 Coaches
Consider us bullish on the Aggies returning to national relevance. - Kansas State – #14 (SF) vs. #17 AP / #20 Coaches
Quietly dangerous, with a top-15 profile in our numbers. - Oregon – #5 (SF) vs. #7 AP/Coaches
A legit playoff ceiling per our power rating. - Sleepers others don’t rank: Louisville #17, TCU #18, Nebraska #23, Navy #24. These are model darlings that will have a chance to validate quickly in September.
SportsFormulator is lower than AP/Coaches on:
- Clemson – #11 (SF) vs. #4 AP / #6 Coaches
Top-15 team, yes; top-5, not yet in our view. - South Carolina – #20 (SF) vs. #13 AP/Coaches
Solid but more volatile week-to-week than the human polls suggest. - Miami (FL) – #15 (SF) vs. #10 AP/Coaches
We have the ‘Canes as a step behind the elite tier. - Georgia – #7 (SF) vs. #5 AP / #4 Coaches and Alabama – #10 (SF) vs. #8 AP/Coaches
Slight downticks from us — still elite, just not quite the autobid versions of prior years. - Not ranked by SportsFormulator but ranked by others: Michigan (#14 AP/Coaches), Ole Miss (#21 AP / #15 Coaches), Oklahoma (#18 AP), Tennessee (#24 AP / #18 Coaches), Texas Tech (#23 AP / #24 Coaches).
Consensus & Disagreement Snapshot
Teams all three rank (20 total):
Alabama, Arizona State, Boise State, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas State, LSU, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, SMU, South Carolina, Texas, Texas A&M.
Only in SportsFormulator: Louisville (#17), TCU (#18), Nebraska (#23), Navy (#24), Auburn (#25).
Only in AP: Oklahoma (#18).
Only in Coaches: BYU (#23).
Group to Watch Outside the Blue Bloods
- Illinois (#8 SF; #12 AP/Coaches): Our model says top-10 power. If the offense holds up, the Illini can linger in the playoff conversation.
- SMU (#16 across all): A rare point of harmony — the Mustangs are viewed as a legit Top-20 team after their leap to the ACC.
- Boise State (#22 SF; #25 AP/Coaches): We’re slightly more optimistic than the human polls; the Broncos’ schedule gives them New Year’s Six access if they stack wins.
What It Means for the Playoff Race
- Texas / Penn State / Ohio State form the early playoff core.
- Notre Dame, Georgia, Oregon are best positioned to crash the top line.
- Our numbers suggest Florida has real upside, while Clemson and Miami need to prove top-10 efficiency on the field.
- If you’re hunting for a September storyline, circle Louisville and TCU — unranked elsewhere, but power-rated by us as dangerous.
Final Word
Preseason rankings aren’t trophies — they’re starting points. SportsFormulator’s ratings lean on power numbers and projected performance, often spotting risers (and faders) before the polls catch up. We’ll update weekly as results roll in and the data sharpen. See our full 2025 college football preseason rankings for all 136 teams.
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