by Matt Fischer
Tonight the first ever college football season, at least for FBS, begins and will lead to a four team playoff to crown a champion in January 2015. Using our data driven predictions, we’ve predicted the records for the 2014 season and now I’m going to predict what the selection committee will do when selecting this college football final four.
The committee seems to value strength of schedule and non-conference strength of schedule above all else. I think they’ll also put a premium on undefeated conference champions. I think it’s going to be very difficult for a team to make the final four not winning a conference championship unless a few conference winners have multiple losses. With that said, here’s are the four teams I think the committee picks for the college football playoff.
The top seed will be Alabama. We project the Crimson Tide to go undefeated and win the SEC Championship. The SEC should once again be a great league. The Tide running the table will carry a lot of weight with the committee as it could include wins over several ranked teams. The SEC Champ will have the pole position for the first ever college football playoff.
The second seed will be the defending champs, Florida State. The Seminoles we predict to cruise through the season to another perfect record. They shouldn’t meet much resistance this season but do have a tricky game at Louisville and the Florida Gators could challenge them at the end of the year.
The third seed will be the Oregon Ducks. We project the Ducks to win the Pac-12 but finish with a blemish on the record. The strength of the Pac-12 will carry them here along with a victory over our predicted Big Ten Champion, Michigan State, in their second game of the season.
The final team to make the inaugural college football playoff will be the Oklahoma Sooners. OU we predict will go undefeated through the Big XII. The lack of a marqee non-conference win (barring a surprising season from Louisiana Tech, Tulsa or Tennessee) and not having a conference championship hurts Bob Stoops’ team. They’re gonna make the playoff and that’s really all that matters.
The committee sets up a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl upset as Oklahoma and Alabama will face-off again this postseason. Then the Ducks and ‘Noles will collide in the other semifinal.
Alabama will have revenge on its mind and have plenty of motivation after last year’s loss to OU. Their supreme talent at the skill positions will win out and get them to advance to the college football playoff championship game.
I’d love to see Florida State and Oregon meet in the playoff. This would be a fun match-up with all the speed on the field. I think the Ducks pull the upset. I think their tempo can wear down the Noles and Marcus Mariota will shine in what could be a match-up of Heisman winning QB’s.
The championship game of the college football playoff will feature the third seed Oregon against the top seed Alabama at Cowboys Stadium. Oregon has a good shot at winning this game since Nick Saban won’t have over a month to prepare for their uptempo style. When given the typical lead up to a bowl game, Saban is nearly unbeatable. In looking at data this offseason, there’s a lot to like about Oregon. I think they pull the upset and win the college football playoff and take home the national championship.