Formulator Football Friday – November 4, 2016


by Matt Fischer

It’s Friday and that means a weekend full of football awaits us!  We’re in the second half of the 2016 college football season and the midpoint of the NFL season.  Teams now begin jockeying for position.

College football teams are either making their push to a birth in the conference championship or trying to get bowl eligible.

In the NFL, teams are focused on staying healthy and trying to win to separate themselves from the pack.  19 of the 32 NFL teams have 3 or 4 wins at this point in the season.


College Football Week 10

One of the biggest games of the season is Saturday night as Alabama and LSU collide.  Ed Orgeron has had LSU playing great since taking over earlier in the season but will face his biggest test in a Crimson Tide team that has only been challenged into the fourth quarter once this season.

In the Big Ten, Nebraska and Ohio State battle in what could be a conference championship game preview.  Iowa and Penn State play on Saturday in a game where Penn State can keep trying to hang in the race for the Big Ten East.  Their win over Ohio State has them in the running for the division crown.  They can’t let up against an Iowa team that is trying to make it back to a Big Ten Championship game.  This week’s Free Pick is Iowa +7.5.

Who wins this weekend?  You can see in our week 10 college football predictions.  Make your own picks for Saturday’s games in our College Football Survivor contest.

As part of our anniversary last weekend, I published my 3 part series called the College Football Revolution.  It has three improvements I’d make for college football to get even better.

Read the 3 parts:
Ultimate Realignment: The Death of the Power 5
Power Scheduling
The New Playoff

The College Football Playoff committee released their rankings this week.  The formula predicted the semi-final match-ups and then the national championship.  See who would win if the playoff were this weekend.

NFL Week 9

This week of the NFL saw a bit of a shocker as Norv Turner resigned as offensive coordinator of the Vikings.  The Vikings would be the two seed in the NFC if the playoffs started this weekend.  This news broke after I’d made this week’s NFL survivor pool pick.  We’re at the point in the season where it gets much more difficult to make the survivor pick but we found a team that fit the criteria and we’re staying with it.

The AFC West is looking like it has three solid playoff contenders in the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos.  All three would be in the playoff this week.  How would they do?  You can see in our NFL Playoff predictions for this week.

The NFC East has a big match-up as the Giants host the Eagles.  Both need the win to stay within reach of the NFC’s best Cowboys.

Who wins in week 9?  Get our NFL predictions now and make your own picks in this weekend’s NFL Survivor contest.

Get Formulator Football Friday delivered to your email

Your Name (required)

Your Email (required)

Send me SportsFormulator's Football Friday newsletter.

2016 NFL Playoff Predictions – Week 9


We’re ready for week 9 and looking ahead to the NFL playoffs.  Based upon current NFL standings, we predict the NFL Playoffs from the Wildcard round through Super Bowl 51.

The AFC Playoff picture is dominated by the AFC West.  The Raiders win the tie-breaker and get the #2 seed with division foes Broncos and Chiefs as the Wildcard teams.  The Patriots are the top seed joining fellow division leaders, the Steelers and Texans to round out the AFC Playoff teams.

Rookie QB Dak Prescott has the Cowboys as the top seed for another week.  The Vikings stay the two seed this week followed by the Seahawks, Falcons, Packers and Giants in the NFC playoffs.


Week 9 2016 NFL Playoffs:

Wildcard Round

AFC – Chiefs at Texans

Chiefs 53% 21
Texans 47% 20

AFC – Broncos at Steelers

Broncos 49% 21
Steelers 51% 22

NFC – Giants at Seahawks

Giants 41% 16
Seahawks 59% 21

NFC – Packers at Falcons

Packers 44% 25
Falcons 56% 29

Divisional Round

AFC – Chiefs at Patriots

Chiefs 39% 19
Patriots 61% 25

AFC – Steelers at Raiders

Steelers 47% 24
Raiders 53% 25

NFC – Falcons at Cowboys

Falcons 41% 24
Cowboys 59% 29

NFC – Seahawks at Vikings

Seahawks 43% 16
Vikings 57% 19

Conference Championship

AFC Championship – Raiders at Patriots

Seahawks 43% 16
Vikings 57% 19

NFC Championship – Vikings vs. Cowboys

Vikings 42% 18
Cowboys 58% 22

Super Bowl 51 – Patriots vs. Cowboys

Patriots 52% 23
Cowboys 48% 22

Roger Goodell prepare yourself, you’ll be handing Tom Brady the Lombardi Trophy.  Check out our week 9 NFL predictions for every game.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 9 – 2016

We want you to survive your eliminator pool this NFL season so we’re giving our free survivor pool strategy all season. Our picks are based upon our data driven NFL predictions and power rankings.

We’re 7-1 surviving on the season.  Our only loss was a 1 point loss where the Chargers blew a lead to the Saints in week 4.

2016 Survivor Pick Results
Week 1 – Texans (Win)
Week 2 – Panthers (Win)
Week 3 – Packers (Win)
Week 4 – Chargers (Loss)
Week 5 – Steelers (Win)
Week 6 – Bills (Win)
Week 7 – Chiefs (Win)
Week 8 – Broncos (Win)

Survivor Pool Pick Strategy:

We start with our list of 13 predicted winners:
Falcons (at Bucs)
Chiefs (vs. Jaguars)
Vikings (vs. Lions)
Eagles (at Giants)
Cowboys (at Browns)
Dolphins (vs. Jets)
Ravens (vs. Steelers)
Saints (at 49ers)
Rams (vs. Panthers)
Packers (vs. Colts)
Chargers (vs. Titans)
Broncos (at Raiders)
Seahawks (vs. Bills)

The Redskins, Bengals, Cardinals, Bears, Texans and Patriots are off this week.

Now there are four steps to easily cut down your potential pick for your NFL survivor pool.

Eliminate Toss-Up Winners

First we eliminate toss-up games.  That means we’re cutting the 1 point winners out of the list.  The Ravens, Rams, Broncos and Seahawks are out.  We have nine teams remaining.

Eliminate Road Winners

Next we eliminate road teams.  I don’t like taking road teams to win in the NFL at all.  Just too risky when you need a win, go with a home team.

Eliminating predicted road winners, the Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys and Saints are out.  We have five teams left to consider for our week 9 survivor pool pick.

Eliminate Low Ranking Winners

Next, I look for team that aren’t in our 20 of the power rankings.  The Dolphins (22) and Chargers (21) are out of consideration.  Three teams remain.

Eliminate Winners Playing Good Teams

Then, I look for our predicted winners that are playing teams ranked in the top 16 and take them out of consideration.  None of the three teams left fit this so we still have three teams to consider.

Eliminate the Teams We’ve Already Picked in 2016

We’ve previously picked the Chiefs and Packers so that leaves us with one team remaining as our week 9 NFL Survivor Pool pick.

Final  Survivor Pool Pick Candidates

The Minnesota Vikings met all of our criteria for the NFL Survivor Pool pick in week 9.  Take the Vikings to survive this week!


Get more NFL winning information for Week 9:


NFL Power Rankings Week 9 – 2016

NFL Power Rankings – Week 9

Using our proprietary formula we rank all 32  teams in our weekly NFL power rankings.

1 New England Patriots
2 Dallas Cowboys
3 Denver Broncos
4 Minnesota Vikings
5 Kansas City Chiefs
6 Philadelphia Eagles
7 Oakland Raiders
8 Seattle Seahawks
9 Atlanta Falcons
10 Pittsburgh Steelers
11 Green Bay Packers
12 Buffalo Bills
13 Arizona Cardinals
14 New York Giants
15 Washington Redskins
16 Houston Texans
17 Tennessee Titans
18 Detroit Lions
19 Baltimore Ravens
20 Cincinnati Bengals
21 San Diego Chargers
22 Miami Dolphins
23 New Orleans Saints
24 Los Angeles Rams
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26 Carolina Panthers
27 Indianapolis Colts
28 New York Jets
29 Jacksonville Jaguars
30 Chicago Bears
31 San Francisco 49ers
32 Cleveland Browns


Get NFL Predictions by email from SportsFormulator

Your Name (required)

Your Email (required)

Send me SportsFormulator's Football Friday newsletter.

See more of our winning information for NFL week 9:


Get NFL predictions all season long from SportsFormulator.

NFL Predictions Week 9 – 2016


Using our predictive formula we’ve predicted every NFL game on the board in week 9 including Broncos at Raiders, Steelers at Ravens, Bills at Seahawks and more.

Get NFL Predictions by email from SportsFormulator

Your Name (required)

Your Email (required)

Send me SportsFormulator's Football Friday newsletter.


NFL Predictions – Week 9

thursday night football

November 3, 2016
Falcons 54% 29 -3.5
Bucs 46% 27 51.5

November 6, 2016
Jaguars 33% 18 45.5
Chiefs 67% 27 51.5
Lions 39% 18 41
Vikings 61% 23 -6
Eagles 56% 22 43.5
Giants 44% 19 -2.5
Cowboys 63% 27 -7.5
Browns 37% 20 48.5
Jets 40% 19 44
Dolphins 60% 25 -3.5
Steelers 48% 21 43
Ravens 52% 22 -3
Saints 54% 29 -3
49ers 46% 27 52
Panthers 49% 23 -3
Rams 51% 24 45
Colts 40% 23 54
Packers 60% 28 -7
Titans 43% 23 47
Chargers 57% 27 -5.5
Broncos 51% 24 44
Raiders 49% 23 PK

November 7, 2016
Bills 47% 20 44
Seahawks 53% 21 -7

Get our top NFL picks for week 9 in the Pick Shop.