Missouri at Ole Miss Prediction – October 17, 2026

Model prediction: Missouri 34, Ole Miss 27

Missouri is projected to win 65.6% of the simulations; Ole Miss wins 34.4%. The average simulated score was Missouri 33.8, Ole Miss 27.2.

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Missouri	17	10	0	7	34
Ole Miss	17	7	0	3	27

This is one representative simulation, selected for its closeness to the average final score. The game is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, October 17, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. mutigers.com

Projected team stats

Team	Points (average)	Total yards	Plays	Yards per play	Drives
Missouri	33.8	419	75	5.6	13.0
Ole Miss	27.2	351	66	5.3	11.6

Across the simulations, the middle half of Missouri’s scores fell between 26 and 41; Ole Miss’s fell between 20 and 35.

Projected player stats

Player lines are matchup-adjusted estimates based on season-to-date usage and production. They’re a projection layer, not individual player outcomes sampled directly in the drive simulation.

Team	Player	Projected line
Missouri	QB Austin Simmons	230–250 pass yds, 1–2 pass TD, about 0–1 INT
Missouri	RB Jamal Roberts	115–135 rush yds, about 1 TD
Missouri	WR Cayden Lee	70–90 rec yds, about 5–7 catches
Missouri	WR Donovan Olugbode	45–65 rec yds, about 3–5 catches
Ole Miss	QB Trinidad Chambliss	240–260 pass yds, 1–2 pass TD, about 1 INT; 20–35 rush yds
Ole Miss	RB Kewan Lacy	50–70 rush yds, about 0–1 TD
Ole Miss	WR Deuce Alexander	75–95 rec yds, about 5–7 catches
Ole Miss	WR Traylon Ray	35–50 rec yds

Missouri at Ole Miss: Anytime TD estimates

Player	Chance to score a TD	Model’s fair odds*
Missouri RB Jamal Roberts	70%	-233
Missouri WR Cayden Lee	48%	+108
Missouri WR Donovan Olugbode	50%	+100
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss	58%	-138
Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy	48%	+108
Ole Miss WR Deuce Alexander	55%	-122
Ole Miss WR Traylon Ray	24%	+317
Ole Miss WR Caleb Odom	20%	+400

Quarterbacks throwing a TD: Austin Simmons 82% to throw at least one; Trinidad Chambliss 84%.