Ohio State at Indiana Prediction – October 17, 2026
Ohio State at Indiana Prediction: Buckeyes Edge Hoosiers in Bloomington
No. 4 Ohio State visits No. 5 Indiana on Saturday, October 17, in a matchup of Big Ten contenders. The Buckeyes enter 5–1; Indiana is 6–0. TeamRankings lists Ohio State as a 3-point favorite with a 50.5-point total. TeamRankings.com
SportsFormulator Simulation
Projected final score: Ohio State 27, Indiana 24
Across 50,000 simulated games, Ohio State won 56.5% of the time. The simulation’s average scores were Ohio State 26.5 and Indiana 24.0. The total landed over 50.5 in 49.1% of simulations, making the total essentially a toss-up in this model.
| Quarter | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | 7 |
| 2nd | 7 | 7 |
| 3rd | 7 | 3 |
| 4th | 10 | 7 |
| Final | 27 | 24 |
The quarter scores show one representative simulated path close to the average final score. They are not quarter-by-quarter averages.
Projected Team Statistics
| Statistic | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 278 | 196 |
| Rushing yards | 127 | 159 |
| Total yards | 405 | 355 |
| Pass completions | 23 | 19 |
| Pass attempts | 32 | 28 |
| First downs | 21 | 19 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Projected Player Statistics
These are matchup-adjusted estimates based on current season production and expected roles.
| Ohio State player | Projection |
|---|---|
| QB Julian Sayin | 23–32 passing, 278 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| RB Bo Jackson | 18 carries, 78 yards; 1 reception, 5 yards |
| WR Jeremiah Smith | 6 receptions, 104 yards, 1 TD |
| WR Devin McCuin | 3 receptions, 39 yards |
| Indiana player | Projection |
|---|---|
| QB Josh Hoover | 19–28 passing, 215 yards, 2 TD; 0–1 INT |
| RB Turbo Richard | 15 carries, 76 yards; 2 receptions, 16 yards |
| RB Lee Beebe Jr. | 13 carries, 58 yards |
| WR Charlie Becker | 4 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD |
| WR Nick Marsh | 4 receptions, 73 yards, 1 TD |
Why the Model Favors Ohio State
Ohio State’s offense is averaging 42.7 points and 503.5 yards per game. Indiana’s defense has been strong, but the matchup projection still gives the Buckeyes the edge through the air. Julian Sayin has thrown for 1,772 yards and 17 touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith has 916 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns through six games.
Indiana’s offense has been productive too, averaging 40.2 points per game. Josh Hoover has thrown 17 touchdowns without an interception; Turbo Richard has rushed for 597 yards, while Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh have each topped 500 receiving yards. That gives the Hoosiers enough firepower to keep this close at home.
Ohio State will be without running back Ja’Kobi Jackson and offensive lineman Austin Siereveld, which could affect the Buckeyes’ rushing depth and protection.
Final Take
The simulation projects a close game, with Ohio State’s passing game providing the narrow difference. Ohio State 27, Indiana 24 is the most representative scoreline from this 50,000-run model.