2026 NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl Predictions
SportsFormulator has simulated the complete 2026 NFL season to project all 32 final records, playoff chances, Super Bowl appearance probabilities and odds of finishing with the league’s worst record.
The analysis begins with a win probability for every game on the 272-game regular-season schedule. We simulated the season 200,000 times, selected seven playoff teams from each conference and played out the postseason under the current NFL format.
These results provide sports bettors with a schedule-aware view of the league. They can be used alongside NFL win totals, playoff futures, conference odds and Super Bowl prices to identify where the SportsFormulator model differs from the betting market.
2026 NFL Predictions at a Glance
- Best projected record: Seattle Seahawks, 15-2
- Highest playoff probability: Seattle Seahawks, 100.0%
- Highest Super Bowl appearance probability: Seattle Seahawks, 79.5%
- Top AFC Super Bowl probability: New England Patriots, 39.5%
- Highest chance of the 2027 No. 1 pick: New York Jets, 44.5%
2026 NFL Projected Records and Futures Probabilities
“Super Bowl” represents the probability of reaching the game, not winning it. “No. 1 Pick” represents the chance of finishing with the NFL’s worst record; ties for the fewest wins are shared randomly in this simulation rather than resolved with the NFL’s official draft-order tiebreakers.
Every projected record covers the complete 17-game regular season, and the standings reconcile to 272 wins and 272 losses.
| Team | Projected Record | Playoffs | Super Bowl | No. 1 Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 11.3% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 | 31.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10-7 | 63.0% | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | 12-5 | 89.3% | 13.6% | <0.1% |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-12 | 9.7% | <0.1% | 0.9% |
| Chicago Bears | 9-8 | 32.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7-10 | 5.4% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-12 | 0.6% | <0.1% | 1.7% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7-10 | 8.2% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Denver Broncos | 11-6 | 68.4% | 4.5% | <0.1% |
| Detroit Lions | 12-5 | 94.9% | 7.2% | <0.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | 9-8 | 52.5% | 1.1% | <0.1% |
| Houston Texans | 13-4 | 90.4% | 11.1% | <0.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 11-6 | 66.8% | 1.9% | <0.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 14-3 | 97.2% | 25.8% | <0.1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9-8 | 28.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-13 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10-7 | 49.6% | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10-7 | 73.4% | 3.3% | <0.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 4-13 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-7 | 54.7% | 1.0% | <0.1% |
| New England Patriots | 14-3 | 97.4% | 39.5% | <0.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 7-10 | 24.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| New York Giants | 7-10 | 7.3% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| New York Jets | 2-15 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 44.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 | 91.4% | 3.3% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 | 43.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11-6 | 80.9% | 3.8% | <0.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 15-2 | 100.0% | 79.5% | <0.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-10 | 38.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-15 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 32.0% |
| Washington Commanders | 4-13 | 0.6% | <0.1% | 2.7% |
AFC Predictions and Betting Outlook
New England, Jacksonville, Houston and Buffalo form the model’s top AFC group. The Patriots have the conference’s highest Super Bowl appearance probability at 39.5%, followed by Jacksonville at 25.8%, Buffalo at 13.6% and Houston at 11.1%.
The AFC South is the deepest division in the projections. Jacksonville finishes 14-3, Houston goes 13-4 and Indianapolis lands at 11-6, creating an unusual situation in which strong teams must take wins from one another. Bettors comparing season win totals should account for that divisional concentration.
Denver projects to finish 11-6, but its 68.4% playoff probability is lower than that record might suggest because of a difficult schedule and competitive AFC wild-card race. The Chargers sit almost directly on the postseason bubble at 49.6%.
Kansas City is one of the model’s notable market disagreements. The Chiefs project to finish 9-8 and make the playoffs in only 28.3% of simulations.
NFC Predictions and Betting Outlook
Seattle is the clear NFC favorite. The Seahawks project to finish 15-2, reach the postseason in virtually every simulation and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl 79.5% of the time.
Detroit has the conference’s next-highest projected record at 12-5, while Philadelphia carries a 91.4% playoff probability. San Francisco reaches the postseason in 80.9% of simulations despite sharing the NFC West with Seattle and the Rams.
The NFC North may produce several relevant teams. Detroit is the favorite at 12-5, while Minnesota projects to finish 10-7 and Green Bay 9-8. Chicago remains a live long shot but reaches the postseason in only 32.5% of simulations.
The NFC South is much less certain. Tampa Bay owns the division’s highest playoff probability at just 38.9%, followed by Atlanta at 31.0% and New Orleans at 24.0%. Division-winner odds may offer more useful opportunities than broad Super Bowl futures in this group.
2027 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Probabilities
The model identifies three primary candidates to finish with the NFL’s worst record:
- New York Jets — 44.5%
- Tennessee Titans — 32.0%
- Arizona Cardinals — 11.3%
Miami is next at 3.5%, followed by Las Vegas at 2.8% and Washington at 2.7%. These percentages measure the chance of owning the worst record based on wins alone. The NFL’s official draft order uses strength of schedule and additional procedures to break ties.
How to Use These NFL Predictions for Betting
Projected records are useful, but the probability columns provide more context for futures bettors. A 10-7 projection can produce very different playoff odds depending on the conference, division and distribution of possible outcomes.
Before betting an NFL future:
- Compare the model probability with the sportsbook’s implied probability.
- Shop across sportsbooks for the best line and price.
- Account for injuries, quarterback changes and roster moves after publication.
- Avoid treating a projected record as a guaranteed outcome.
- Consider how long a futures wager will tie up bankroll.
2026 NFL Predictions: Final Takeaways
SportsFormulator projects Seattle as the league’s strongest regular-season team and most likely Super Bowl participant. New England is the AFC favorite, while Jacksonville and Houston also carry substantial postseason upside.
At the other end of the standings, the Jets and Titans account for more than three-quarters of the model’s No. 1-pick probability. Arizona is the primary alternative if either team exceeds expectations.
These projections will evolve as ratings, injuries and team performance change. Use them as one input in a broader betting process and verify current odds before wagering.
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