2026 College Football Playoff Predictions
The 12-team playoff rewards résumé, conference championships, elite wins and consistency. Our projected field blends the 44,444-run season simulation with the selection committee’s stated priorities and the requirement that at least one non-Power Four champion reaches the bracket. Here is our seeding of the 2026 College Football Playoff:
| Seed | Team | Opening Assignment |
| 1 | Notre Dame | Bye |
| 2 | Ohio State | Bye |
| 3 | Georgia | Bye |
| 4 | Oregon | Bye |
| 5 | Indiana | Hosts New Mexico |
| 6 | Miami | Hosts Oklahoma |
| 7 | Texas Tech | Hosts Texas |
| 8 | Ole Miss | Hosts BYU |
| 9 | BYU | at Ole Miss |
| 10 | Texas | at Texas Tech |
| 11 | Oklahoma | at Miami |
| 12 | New Mexico | at Indiana |
First-Round Predictions
No. 5 Indiana over No. 12 New Mexico
No. 6 Miami over No. 11 Oklahoma
No. 10 Texas over No. 7 Texas Tech
No. 8 Ole Miss over No. 9 BYU
Quarterfinal Predictions
No. 1 Notre Dame over No. 8 Ole Miss
No. 2 Ohio State over No. 10 Texas
No. 6 Miami over No. 3 Georgia
No. 4 Oregon over No. 5 Indiana
Semifinal Predictions
No. 4 Oregon over No. 1 Notre Dame
No. 6 Miami over No. 2 Ohio State
National Championship Prediction
Miami over Oregon. Miami has the talent that should gel by the end of the season for another playoff run. The Ducks brought so many key players back to make this game but Miami QB Darian Mensah shows out and gets the Canes the natty!
What the Simulation Says
| Rank | Team | Record | CFP Chance | League Title |
| 1 | Ohio State | 11-1 | 94.6% | 44.6% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 11-1 | 91.6% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Oregon | 11-1 | 89.1% | 31.4% |
| 4 | Georgia | 11-1 | 88.4% | 57.7% |
| 5 | Indiana | 11-1 | 87.5% | 22.3% |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 11-1 | 77.7% | 51.1% |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | 9-3 | 51.4% | 38.0% |
| 8 | New Mexico | 9-3 | 43.6% | 35.9% |
| 9 | UNLV | 9-3 | 32.0% | 22.4% |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 9-3 | 27.9% | 9.0% |
| 11 | BYU | 9-3 | 27.7% | 15.2% |
| 12 | Texas | 8-4 | 26.2% | 12.8% |
| 13 | Houston | 9-3 | 25.5% | 11.4% |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 8-4 | 20.2% | 5.3% |
| 15 | James Madison | 9-3 | 20.1% | 37.8% |
| 16 | SMU | 8-4 | 19.7% | 14.0% |
| 17 | Arizona | 8-4 | 17.0% | 8.0% |
| 18 | UTSA | 9-3 | 16.9% | 27.1% |
| 19 | Louisville | 8-4 | 16.4% | 11.6% |
| 20 | Virginia | 8-4 | 16.2% | 9.5% |
Selection Note
These are projections, not an attempt to predict the committee’s exact weekly rankings. Head-to-head results, quality wins, injuries, conference titles and late-season performance can move teams with similar résumés in either direction.