2026 NFL Win Total Predictions: Over/Under Probabilities for All 32 Teams
SportsFormulator has simulated the entire 2026 NFL regular season to identify potential value in the season win-total market.
Our model assigns every team a win probability in each of its 17 games. We combine those probabilities to calculate expected wins and the likelihood that each team finishes Over or Under its posted total.
The win totals used in this analysis are the BetMGM numbers displayed by VegasInsider as of September 7, 2026. Sportsbook lines and prices can change, so bettors should verify the current market before placing a wager.
Best 2026 NFL Win Total Predictions
Strongest Over Probabilities
- Jacksonville Jaguars Over 8.5 — 99.9%
- Seattle Seahawks Over 10.5 — 99.9%
- New England Patriots Over 9.5 — 99.6%
- Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5 — 98.5%
- Houston Texans Over 10.5 — 90.6%
Strongest Under Probabilities
- Tennessee Titans Under 6.5 — 99.9%
- New York Jets Under 5.5 — 99.8%
- Cincinnati Bengals Under 10.5 — 98.1%
- Washington Commanders Under 7.5 — 96.8%
- Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 — 95.8%
These percentages measure how frequently each side would cash according to the SportsFormulator model. They do not account for the sportsbook price or vig. Bettors should compare the model probability with the available odds before deciding whether a wager offers value.
2026 NFL Win Totals: Over and Under Probabilities
| Team | Win Total | Expected Wins | Over Probability | Under Probability | Model Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 | 2.99 | 33.2% | 66.8% | Under |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6.5 | 6.91 | 58.2% | 41.8% | Over |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 10.25 | 44.7% | 55.3% | Under |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 12.49 | 89.0% | 11.0% | Over |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | 5.40 | 12.0% | 88.0% | Under |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 | 8.61 | 30.6% | 69.4% | Under |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | 6.80 | 1.9% | 98.1% | Under |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | 5.00 | 37.2% | 62.8% | Under |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | 6.60 | 4.2% | 95.8% | Under |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | 11.17 | 84.0% | 16.0% | Over |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | 12.31 | 86.9% | 13.1% | Over |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | 9.52 | 50.7% | 49.3% | Over |
| Houston Texans | 10.5 | 12.63 | 90.6% | 9.4% | Over |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | 11.12 | 98.5% | 1.5% | Over |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | 13.62 | 99.9% | 0.1% | Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | 9.42 | 26.2% | 73.8% | Under |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 | 4.31 | 20.0% | 80.0% | Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | 10.37 | 69.7% | 30.3% | Over |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 | 10.42 | 26.6% | 73.4% | Under |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | 3.96 | 61.4% | 38.6% | Over |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | 9.61 | 73.6% | 26.4% | Over |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 | 13.58 | 99.6% | 0.4% | Over |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | 6.56 | 30.1% | 69.9% | Under |
| New York Giants | 7.5 | 6.57 | 27.9% | 72.1% | Under |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | 1.76 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | 10.71 | 55.7% | 44.3% | Over |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 9.53 | 72.6% | 27.4% | Over |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | 10.84 | 58.6% | 41.4% | Over |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | 15.16 | 99.9% | 0.1% | Over |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | 7.30 | 26.1% | 73.9% | Under |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | 2.05 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Under |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | 4.44 | 3.2% | 96.8% | Under |
Best NFL Win Total Overs
Jacksonville Jaguars Over 8.5
Jacksonville is projected for 13.62 wins, more than five victories above its posted total. The model gives the Jaguars a 99.9% probability of winning at least nine games.
Jacksonville grades as one of the NFL’s strongest teams and carries favorable win probabilities throughout its schedule. Even with two games against a highly rated Houston team, the Jaguars have considerable room between their projection and the market number.
SportsFormulator prediction: Jaguars Over 8.5
Seattle Seahawks Over 10.5
Seattle leads the model with 15.16 expected wins. The Seahawks have a 99.9% probability of reaching at least 11 victories.
The model rates Seattle as the strongest team in the league and projects the Seahawks to win the NFC West. A 10.5 total is substantial, but the projection still provides a cushion of more than four wins.
SportsFormulator prediction: Seahawks Over 10.5
New England Patriots Over 9.5
New England projects for 13.58 wins and has a 99.6% probability of reaching double-digit victories.
The Patriots carry strong probabilities across their AFC schedule and project as the AFC East favorite. The VegasInsider total of 9.5 is four wins below the model expectation.
SportsFormulator prediction: Patriots Over 9.5
Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5
Indianapolis is projected for 11.12 wins, producing a 98.5% probability of winning at least eight games.
The AFC South is difficult, with Jacksonville and Houston also receiving strong ratings. Even so, the Colts’ overall schedule produces an expected total more than three wins above the market line.
SportsFormulator prediction: Colts Over 7.5
Houston Texans Over 10.5
Houston’s 12.63 expected wins give the Texans a 90.6% probability of clearing 10.5.
The VegasInsider number is higher than some other available totals, which reduces the model’s Over probability. Houston nevertheless remains a strong Over position because it projects more than two wins above the posted number.
SportsFormulator prediction: Texans Over 10.5
Other Notable Over Leans
Several additional teams receive meaningful Over probabilities:
- Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 — 89.0%
- Detroit Lions Over 10.5 — 86.9%
- Denver Broncos Over 9.5 — 84.0%
- Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5 — 73.6%
- Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 — 72.6%
- Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5 — 69.7%
Buffalo, Detroit and Denver all project at least 1.5 wins above their posted totals. Minnesota and Pittsburgh offer smaller differences but still clear a 70% model probability.
Best NFL Win Total Unders
Tennessee Titans Under 6.5
Tennessee projects for only 2.05 wins. The Titans have a 99.9% probability of finishing with six victories or fewer.
The strength of the AFC South creates a particularly difficult situation. Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis all project comfortably above .500, leaving Tennessee with few favorable divisional opportunities.
SportsFormulator prediction: Titans Under 6.5
New York Jets Under 5.5
The Jets have the lowest expected-win total in the NFL at 1.76. Their probability of staying Under 5.5 is 99.8%.
New York must play Buffalo and New England twice, and both teams rank among the model’s strongest AFC contenders. The Jets would need a significant departure from their game-by-game probabilities to reach six wins.
SportsFormulator prediction: Jets Under 5.5
Cincinnati Bengals Under 10.5
Cincinnati projects for 6.80 wins, nearly four victories below its VegasInsider total. The Bengals have a 98.1% probability of finishing Under 10.5.
A bettor taking the Under wins if Cincinnati finishes with 10 victories or fewer. The model views Baltimore and Pittsburgh as stronger AFC North teams and does not project enough success outside the division to support an 11-win season.
SportsFormulator prediction: Bengals Under 10.5
Washington Commanders Under 7.5
Washington projects for 4.44 wins and has a 96.8% probability of finishing with seven or fewer.
The Commanders face a difficult divisional schedule and carry relatively few strong win probabilities elsewhere. The model sees more than three wins of separation between Washington’s expectation and the sportsbook number.
SportsFormulator prediction: Commanders Under 7.5
Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5
Dallas projects for 6.60 wins, producing a 95.8% probability of staying Under 9.5.
The Cowboys need 10 victories to cash the Over. That is 3.4 wins above the SportsFormulator expectation, making Dallas one of the clearest negative differences on the board.
SportsFormulator prediction: Cowboys Under 9.5
Other Notable Under Leans
Additional Under probabilities worth monitoring include:
- Carolina Panthers Under 7.5 — 88.0%
- Las Vegas Raiders Under 5.5 — 80.0%
- Kansas City Chiefs Under 10.5 — 73.8%
- Los Angeles Rams Under 11.5 — 73.4%
- New York Giants Under 7.5 — 72.1%
- New Orleans Saints Under 7.5 — 69.9%
- Chicago Bears Under 9.5 — 69.4%
The Rams are an interesting case. Los Angeles projects as a winning team, but its 11.5 total creates a high threshold. A team can have a successful season and still cash the Under.
NFL Win Totals to Avoid
The following totals fall close enough to 50% that the model does not identify a meaningful advantage:
- Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 — 50.7%
- Baltimore Ravens Under 10.5 — 55.3%
- Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 — 55.7%
- Atlanta Falcons Over 6.5 — 58.2%
- San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 — 58.6%
These teams are better classified as passes unless the sportsbook odds create additional value.
How SportsFormulator Calculates NFL Win Total Probabilities
SportsFormulator evaluates all 272 regular-season games using each team’s Predictor rating, points scored and points allowed.
The Predictor rating is the primary measure of team strength. Scoring differential provides an additional offensive and defensive adjustment, while home-field advantage is included in each matchup.
The model converts every matchup into two complementary win probabilities. For example, if one team has a 55% chance to win a game, its opponent has a 45% chance.
We then combine each team’s 17 game probabilities to calculate its complete season-win distribution. This allows us to measure the actual probability of finishing above or below a sportsbook total instead of relying only on a rounded projected record.
Final 2026 NFL Win Total Betting Outlook
The most substantial differences between the SportsFormulator model and the VegasInsider totals appear on Jacksonville, Seattle, New England, Indianapolis, Tennessee, the New York Jets, Cincinnati, Washington and Dallas.
Our strongest Over predictions are:
- Jaguars Over 8.5
- Seahawks Over 10.5
- Patriots Over 9.5
- Colts Over 7.5
- Texans Over 10.5
Our strongest Under predictions are:
- Titans Under 6.5
- Jets Under 5.5
- Bengals Under 10.5
- Commanders Under 7.5
- Cowboys Under 9.5
These are model probabilities rather than guaranteed outcomes. Injuries, quarterback changes, roster transactions and line movement can materially affect the market.
Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks and confirm the current total before betting. A strong probability does not necessarily create positive expected value if the sportsbook price is too expensive.
Sports betting involves risk. Wager only what you can afford to lose and follow all applicable laws in your location.